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Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 13?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$17,408

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,408 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5093…272cbacked Yes0c4,224$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8472726.4%192 W · 535 L+63.8wins+0.09per pick18cpaid+47.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes29c753.92$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.481,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad13…7ed6backed No69c594.82$412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.9291967%616 W · 303 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes32c441.19$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.8317,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes34c430.79$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.561,47234.8%512 W · 960 L-2.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes9c399.96$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381,8178.1%148 W · 1,669 L-1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x309c…09b5backed No67c349.98$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.4928839.9%115 W · 173 L-13.1wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-8.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6036…cc41backed Yes31c320.31$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.919333.3%31 W · 62 L+0.3wins0.00per pick33cpaid+5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes32c311.66$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.588,33749.2%4,098 W · 4,239 L+271.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ba4…0a0bbacked Yes44c300$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.856950.7%35 W · 34 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-0.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes30c259.66$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.927,59237.5%2,849 W · 4,743 L+96.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc08e…9594backed Yes19c231.94$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.971650%8 W · 8 L+1.9wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+19.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb616…0086backed Yes26c226.21$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.4616434.1%56 W · 108 L+5.6wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked Yes41c222.64$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.121,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5264…9a63backed Yes27c219.99$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.274023.9%177 W · 563 L+23.6wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+23.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a42…8da8backed Yes25c214.88$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.6338840.7%158 W · 230 L-14.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfc33…9636backed No64c200$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7212540%50 W · 75 L-0.4wins0.00per pick40cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2db…2263backed Yes35c199.74$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.9411126.1%29 W · 82 L-9.0wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-33.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes32c181.02$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.0976322.9%175 W · 588 L-34.2wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-46.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed Yes11c160$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.181,28519.5%250 W · 1,035 L+44.3wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x28ab…2048backed No58c158.62$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.7213531.9%43 W · 92 L+0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b59…f71cbacked Yes43c138.62$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6011233.9%38 W · 74 L-7.7wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-28.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1c02…ba96backed Yes31c137.98$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.98341%34 W · 49 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x01c0…5443backed Yes31c133.21$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.1218740.6%76 W · 111 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes31c130$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.319426.3%51 W · 143 L-0.9wins0.00per pick27cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a19…3c95backed No66c120.7$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.2242857%244 W · 184 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc60c…cff8backed Yes31c120$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe34…8ee7backed No69c117$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.8416355.2%90 W · 73 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8dc9…dce0backed Yes38c115.01$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.965731.6%18 W · 39 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick31cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0c8…90c3backed Yes24c114.45$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.88812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick26cpaid-58.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1be9…c899backed Yes31c110$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.1475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes13c104.82$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.497,2339.3%675 W · 6,558 L-1,116.1wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.8%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x919d…f1b1backed No65c100.82$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.6810051%51 W · 49 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+29.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes26c99.94$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.981,86123.8%443 W · 1,418 L+47.9wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0832…8681backed No57c99.67$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.4434651.2%177 W · 169 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes19c99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.813,93923.2%913 W · 3,026 L+125.2wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes19c98.48$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.441,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed Yes25c87.12$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.841,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb1a3…b156backed Yes42c84.14$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353148.4%15 W · 16 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb537…14ccbacked No67c74.63$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.6341460.1%249 W · 165 L-21.5wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-8.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes30c68.02$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.421,56916.3%255 W · 1,314 L+22.4wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+13.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No73c67.59$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.463,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes35c67$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7433339.6%132 W · 201 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick37cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes32c65$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.566,89139.4%2,717 W · 4,174 L+269.8wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-19.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc9b7…ac89backed No60c65$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.0111044.5%49 W · 61 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fbc…4105backed Yes24c65$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8533726.4%89 W · 248 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick26cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No68c63.48$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.1112,54546.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L-39.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes27c60.98$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3212,97520.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L-2,698.0wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-65.3%equal weight27-0.21 edge/pick
0x8a75…e7d4backed Yes30c60.93$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183925.6%10 W · 29 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe233…c70bbacked No70c60$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.8354966.7%366 W · 183 L-27.1wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes17c59.9$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4433243.1%143 W · 189 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No75c58.79$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.8998571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x720a…0a49backed No68c58.31$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.7611878.8%93 W · 25 L+9.3wins+0.08per pick71cpaid+11.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x66a1…3de8backed Yes26c58.11$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1368521.5%147 W · 538 L+12.8wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbecc…f560backed Yes31c55$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.85129.4%15 W · 36 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-19%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd2a…f10dbacked No69c54$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.743100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+73.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb43…2a6bbacked Yes22c52.26$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.411216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-45.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes25c52$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7420546.8%96 W · 109 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa96a…1377backed No62c52$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.5254143.6%236 W · 305 L-12.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-32.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d8e…5d6abacked Yes31c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.59520%19 W · 76 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-28.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x600c…8bd4backed Yes29c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.66358.7%37 W · 26 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x80f5…2b27backed Yes27c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6131442.4%133 W · 181 L+15.2wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes23c48.74$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2557232.9%188 W · 384 L-104.6wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-45.9%equal weight31-0.18 edge/pick
0x47af…3999backed No67c48.33$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.7832652.1%170 W · 156 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x87fe…875bbacked No64c43.4$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.624456.8%25 W · 19 L-4.3wins-0.10per pick67cpaid-14.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe649…4e37backed Yes37c41.92$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3113523%31 W · 104 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb608…881ebacked Yes37c40$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.618842.6%80 W · 108 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes40c38$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.221534%73 W · 142 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked No66c37.67$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.671,00260.9%610 W · 392 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1659…cda7backed Yes27c37.62$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-21.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f59…e76bbacked No69c36$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4701…ca83backed No68c36$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.4716456.7%93 W · 71 L-9.6wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-9.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x483d…65f2backed No69c35.71$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.074344.2%19 W · 24 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No76c35$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.262,50669.7%1,747 W · 759 L+78.1wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8786…7605backed No69c35$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a49…8d1fbacked Yes31c34.5$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.78248.8%40 W · 42 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-15.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d84…4ff1backed No66c34.17$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.5629558%171 W · 124 L-13.7wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-15.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x59b4…78c9backed No68c33.24$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.536755.2%37 W · 30 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4670…103dbacked No69c33$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.232100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+300.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc323…4408backed No64c32.78$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.9533567.5%226 W · 109 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x997f…000abacked No68c32.5$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.414548.3%70 W · 75 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+36.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b11…2976backed No62c32.33$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.3349941.7%208 W · 291 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f6f…f5f0backed Yes33c30.05$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103040%12 W · 18 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+19.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0072…c0bcbacked Yes39c29.43$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.51616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-46%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc57…ce71backed No61c28.01$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.041872.2%13 W · 5 L+6.1wins+0.34per pick38cpaid+96.7%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0xfeb7…093bbacked Yes40c27.46$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x503b…c1b3backed No69c24$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.44366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid-6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No79c22.29$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.682,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf618…6a90backed No76c21.62$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.255858.6%34 W · 24 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x299a…9e6fbacked No60c21.09$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.383033.3%10 W · 20 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1ef…f2b4backed No79c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.123764.9%24 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick69cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9da…ed70backed No77c19.92$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.5876371.4%545 W · 218 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3c0…8032backed No60c18.42$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.372347.8%11 W · 12 L-4.0wins-0.17per pick65cpaid-28.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No73c18.05$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.851,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x917c…3072backed No68c17$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.442100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick70cpaid+44%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x246d…e1b2backed No73c16.39$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.436071.7%43 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick73cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb271…248cbacked No69c16$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2d6…b8e3backed No72c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.214251.4%73 W · 69 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa64…3b84backed No68c15$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x81a2…5cdabacked No80c13.32$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.685872.4%42 W · 16 L-0.2wins0.00per pick73cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.