Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on April 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd903ed7ab0c8e48260dc8ba5332a63c636f69b3681191dba0305f4d50e8b6461
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,453
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,754
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,453 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 5c | 3,540$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.87 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb98c…8f64backed Yes | 1c | 1,020$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 6c | 624.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 53c | 402.75$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.7 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 27c | 318.02$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.47 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked No | 71c | 231.94$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.34 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed Yes | 52c | 179.63$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.4 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe684…5b3bbacked Yes | 31c | 176.97$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.04 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 173.17$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.08 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.67 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed No | 49c | 165.53$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.03 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf757…db38backed Yes | 55c | 156.64$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.87 | 74 | 23%17 W · 57 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc377…593fbacked No | 50c | 142.18$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.75 | 139 | 64%89 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe019…f862backed No | 41c | 127.9$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.97 | 280 | 21.8%61 W · 219 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 24c | 125.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 12c | 124.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b11…ce49backed Yes | 34c | 124.03$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.03 | 81 | 13.6%11 W · 70 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…8f66backed No | 47c | 99.23$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.59 | 180 | 52.8%95 W · 85 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 54c | 94.57$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.18 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 17c | 88.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 66c | 80.43$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.15 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc72…ad49backed Yes | 62c | 80.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.05 | 115 | 65.2%75 W · 40 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x339e…c5fbbacked Yes | 24c | 72.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 28c | 60.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 34c | 58.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 53c | 58.1$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.28 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62fa…187dbacked Yes | 26c | 54.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96ad…8db9backed Yes | 43c | 53.47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 35c | 53.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…cdc1backed No | 65c | 49.98$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 105 | 62.9%66 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 59c | 48.42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.02 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 72c | 40.59$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0209…e1a8backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 38c | 38.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…6604backed No | 63c | 36.17$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 128 | 56.3%72 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40fd…9f9fbacked Yes | 55c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 111 | 45%50 W · 61 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5f…867dbacked No | 65c | 29.31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 56c | 29.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2f…bad2backed No | 36c | 28.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.26 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e03…7d65backed No | 80c | 27$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 77cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…e48fbacked No | 47c | 26.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.02 | 209 | 28.7%60 W · 149 L | -45.3wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 52c | 26.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e22…1b31backed No | 44c | 25.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 76 | 75%57 W · 19 L | +11.8wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 77c | 24.29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ea…998bbacked No | 44c | 23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 159 | 37.7%60 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x481c…2325backed No | 51c | 22.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +12.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…fb04backed Yes | 69c | 20.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 118 | 44.9%53 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Yes | 57c | 18.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 73c | 18.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…137ebacked No | 78c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 136 | 63.2%86 W · 50 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 70c | 17.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 14.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.54 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on April 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C or below on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on April 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on April 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.