Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd90a1d3c896241d0d439604c0ae989419f0fda3e02880637e073107b17507d18
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,599
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,351
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,599 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 21c | 4,115$849 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$849.12 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed Yes | 16c | 1,022$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.61 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 28c | 926$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.76 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…9044backed Yes | 19c | 583.01$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.22 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 22c | 389.75$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.33 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc51…b9e8backed Yes | 16c | 363.65$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.94 | 101 | 34.7%35 W · 66 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 76c | 360$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.2 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes | 21c | 303.17$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.83 | 138 | 38.4%53 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 75c | 292.47$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.74 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 20c | 249.5$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.71 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed Yes | 9c | 222.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…f322backed Yes | 19c | 203.62$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 255 | 19.2%49 W · 206 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 20c | 184.73$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.31 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 78c | 180$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.19 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 175.24$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.26 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 12c | 174.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 77c | 145.53$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.05 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 17c | 122.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 77c | 122$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.31 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 78c | 120$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.03 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 17c | 116.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 19c | 99.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…4c62backed Yes | 19c | 93.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8db4…9c07backed Yes | 21c | 89.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 92 | 39.1%36 W · 56 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 22c | 69.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 67c | 66$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.48 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 77c | 65.36$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 63c | 64.3$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.61 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd4…f2febacked Yes | 20c | 63.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 100 | 30%30 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 21c | 59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 79c | 59$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 75c | 58.74$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.91 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 39c | 56.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed No | 72c | 55.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 76c | 55$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf707…e8cebacked No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae8…5697backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 61c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 79c | 36.76$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked No | 78c | 36.67$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 65c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 72c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 77c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf01e…51cbbacked No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 77c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8d…f1e3backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 32 | 81.3%26 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 73cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…3edabacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 72c | 19.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 76c | 18.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x427a…4e18backed No | 77c | 18.34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 69c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 78c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.58 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 76c | 14.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97f1…a523backed No | 78c | 13.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.94 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on June 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.