TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on June 19?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$21,153
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$20,775

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,153 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd251…4d37backed Yes28c1,530$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430.311,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x17e0…fe5bbacked No66c915.72$604 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.9631043.2%134 W · 176 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked Yes31c680.57$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.81,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes25c664.88$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.324,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a3b…957bbacked Yes13c464.15$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.137056.5%209 W · 161 L+31.7wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+19%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf421…efcebacked Yes20c420.06$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.4942820.1%86 W · 342 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+29.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes33c394.28$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.3410,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed No70c390$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.456543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No78c376$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.435,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes31c310$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.831,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No75c293.72$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.213,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No62c270$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.612,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No76c253.5$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.963,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe45e…fcb8backed Yes29c224.52$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.0411343.4%49 W · 64 L-0.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8db4…9c07backed Yes31c220.01$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.669239.1%36 W · 56 L-6.7wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-38.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No66c217.1$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.326,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes10c213$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.371,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes30c200.71$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6031943.3%138 W · 181 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x10ab…b2e8backed Yes24c200$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487040%28 W · 42 L-5.9wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-22.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x367c…8689backed Yes36c196.28$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701020%2 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-53.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No70c195.88$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.71,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No69c188$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.093,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes35c187.27$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.78,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes12c186.76$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.412,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked No77c186$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.084067.5%27 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick66cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No74c185$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.735,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a9b…0cc4backed Yes20c179.81$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.597634.2%26 W · 50 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-30.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed Yes35c174.69$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.553,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes17c166.78$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.058,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No78c166$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.984,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes22c165.19$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.179,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes14c165$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.196620.7%200 W · 766 L+59.8wins+0.06per pick15cpaid+96.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked Yes33c151.94$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.011,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No73c150$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.51,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf707…e8cebacked Yes24c150$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.655832.8%19 W · 39 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-17.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ae6…7485backed Yes27c150$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.56926.1%18 W · 51 L-11.5wins-0.17per pick43cpaid-45.5%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x655c…1a00backed No71c150$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.536150.4%182 W · 179 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes31c143.65$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.889,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes17c143.03$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.841,86123.8%443 W · 1,418 L+47.9wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea5e…a678backed Yes16c141$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.41,21842%512 W · 706 L+31.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed Yes29c136.03$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.881,19057.9%689 W · 501 L-5.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d7a…59a2backed No74c136.01$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.01580%4 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.17per pick63cpaid+24.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ec8…99d2backed No63c129.96$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.4983360.7%506 W · 327 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No66c128.88$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.4480560.6%488 W · 317 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No74c126.76$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.951,69960.6%1,029 W · 670 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No74c126.61$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.2288650.2%445 W · 441 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes25c126$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3817,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No75c124.65$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.662,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No62c120$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.152,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No75c120$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.633,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes28c118.81$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.942,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes21c117.64$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x696f…8f04backed Yes9c117.22$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.354124.4%10 W · 31 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick17cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc941…a0e8backed Yes18c112.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5820838%79 W · 129 L+9.8wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed No79c107.49$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.572,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No75c106$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.031,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcca3…7450backed Yes22c100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2242643.2%184 W · 242 L+9.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c54…02e9backed No68c100$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326150.8%31 W · 30 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1414…866abacked No68c100$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326243.5%27 W · 35 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfcae…1ea8backed Yes34c100$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.6710147.5%48 W · 53 L-4.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x951c…d8c7backed Yes35c99.76$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.4768335.4%242 W · 441 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40eb…ade9backed Yes28c98.23$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.4149547.1%233 W · 262 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes19c94.9$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.72,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd221…4331backed Yes34c91.58$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.819746.4%45 W · 52 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe4f9…9ab0backed No66c91.58$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.1413838.4%53 W · 85 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-21.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No76c90$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.883,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc51…b9e8backed No70c85.91$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.6110134.7%35 W · 66 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes33c82.17$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.2365934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7faa…c757backed No68c78.42$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.15248.1%25 W · 27 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x01b4…fbe4backed Yes20c73.42$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.033619.4%7 W · 29 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No71c73$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.422,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb887…649dbacked Yes22c71.43$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4cd…368ebacked Yes25c70$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.51442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-17.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No66c65$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.92,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes31c60.37$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5846240.5%187 W · 275 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x710d…02aabacked No79c60$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.3534067.4%229 W · 111 L+24.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+6.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x85df…fb48backed No64c60$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.654234.9%189 W · 353 L-30.1wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-11.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No75c59$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.772,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No74c58.76$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x50d8…0a0ebacked No71c58$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.8239968.9%275 W · 124 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick70cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No69c55$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.842,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7328…dbffbacked Yes25c54.75$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.691,12224.4%274 W · 848 L+24.8wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0fc4…acc4backed Yes26c54$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.282638.5%10 W · 16 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+11.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3ec0…a64abacked No75c53.43$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.4318862.8%118 W · 70 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick61cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c9a…587ebacked Yes22c52.79$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.61955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick46cpaid-13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed Yes34c52.5$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8558358%338 W · 245 L-2.6wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes28c51.86$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5248523.7%115 W · 370 L-18.3wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x33e8…dc93backed Yes26c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1323941.4%99 W · 140 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4af9…3144backed No71c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.521950.7%111 W · 108 L-10.6wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9625…ec8ebacked Yes34c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.759145.1%41 W · 50 L-5.3wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-10.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1b8f…e17ebacked Yes33c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.527248.9%133 W · 139 L-10.1wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xab5e…47f6backed No67c50$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.55935.6%21 W · 38 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9676…4374backed Yes26c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132842.9%12 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc743…4cb7backed No68c50$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169848%47 W · 51 L-4.6wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-8.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes34c49.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1724046.7%112 W · 128 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b23…3ca8backed Yes35c48.87$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8823538.3%90 W · 145 L-11.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-18%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No70c48.17$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.327,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes32c45.69$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.625,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x34c4…9c93backed Yes32c44.2$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.143148.4%15 W · 16 L+0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No74c43.81$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.382,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.