Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on June 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x715b5f3bd3a7443fc4869c7d3e2b830a9db0d3e285cbd2f45f93723adb3e9f52
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,153
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,775
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,153 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 28c | 1,530$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.31 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked No | 66c | 915.72$604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.96 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 31c | 680.57$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.8 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 25c | 664.88$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.32 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked Yes | 13c | 464.15$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.1 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 20c | 420.06$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.49 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 33c | 394.28$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.34 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 70c | 390$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.4 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 78c | 376$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.43 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 31c | 310$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.83 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 75c | 293.72$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.21 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 62c | 270$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.6 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 76c | 253.5$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.96 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…fcb8backed Yes | 29c | 224.52$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.04 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8db4…9c07backed Yes | 31c | 220.01$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.66 | 92 | 39.1%36 W · 56 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 66c | 217.1$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.32 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 10c | 213$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 30c | 200.71$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10ab…b2e8backed Yes | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x367c…8689backed Yes | 36c | 196.28$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 70c | 195.88$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 69c | 188$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.09 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 35c | 187.27$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.7 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 12c | 186.76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 77c | 186$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.08 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 185$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.73 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9b…0cc4backed Yes | 20c | 179.81$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.59 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 35c | 174.69$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.55 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 17c | 166.78$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 78c | 166$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.98 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 22c | 165.19$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.17 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 14c | 165$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 33c | 151.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.01 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 73c | 150$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf707…e8cebacked Yes | 24c | 150$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.65 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae6…7485backed Yes | 27c | 150$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 69 | 26.1%18 W · 51 L | -11.5wins | -0.17per pick | 43cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 71c | 150$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.5 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 31c | 143.65$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.88 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 17c | 143.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 16c | 141$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 29c | 136.03$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.88 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d7a…59a2backed No | 74c | 136.01$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.01 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 63c | 129.96$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.49 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 66c | 128.88$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.44 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 74c | 126.76$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.95 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 74c | 126.61$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.22 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 126$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.38 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 75c | 124.65$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.66 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 62c | 120$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.15 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 75c | 120$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.63 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 28c | 118.81$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.94 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 21c | 117.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.58 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x696f…8f04backed Yes | 9c | 117.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 41 | 24.4%10 W · 31 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed Yes | 18c | 112.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 79c | 107.49$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.57 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 75c | 106$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.03 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c54…02e9backed No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1414…866abacked No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcae…1ea8backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.67 | 101 | 47.5%48 W · 53 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 35c | 99.76$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.47 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 28c | 98.23$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.41 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 19c | 94.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd221…4331backed Yes | 34c | 91.58$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.81 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…9ab0backed No | 66c | 91.58$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.14 | 138 | 38.4%53 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 76c | 90$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.88 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc51…b9e8backed No | 70c | 85.91$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.61 | 101 | 34.7%35 W · 66 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 33c | 82.17$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.23 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7faa…c757backed No | 68c | 78.42$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.1 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01b4…fbe4backed Yes | 20c | 73.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 71c | 73$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb887…649dbacked Yes | 22c | 71.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cd…368ebacked Yes | 25c | 70$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 66c | 65$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 31c | 60.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked No | 79c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 64c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 75c | 59$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 74c | 58.76$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 71c | 58$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.82 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 69c | 55$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.84 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 25c | 54.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc4…acc4backed Yes | 26c | 54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…a64abacked No | 75c | 53.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 188 | 62.8%118 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9a…587ebacked Yes | 22c | 52.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 34c | 52.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 28c | 51.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9625…ec8ebacked Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab5e…47f6backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9676…4374backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc743…4cb7backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed Yes | 35c | 48.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 70c | 48.17$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 32c | 45.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34c4…9c93backed Yes | 32c | 44.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 74c | 43.81$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on June 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on June 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.