TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 19?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$18,827
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$19,690

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,827 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 125 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes46c2,756$1,264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,492.131043.2%134 W · 176 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes52c541.67$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.421,19657.9%693 W · 503 L+47.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes55c509.43$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.194,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No57c480.11$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.18,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes72c441.87$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.152,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a3b…957bbacked No12c420.46$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.7137056.5%209 W · 161 L+31.7wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+19%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No57c347.47$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.814,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc426…ac6ebacked No47c337.98$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.0614646.6%68 W · 78 L-7.9wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-12.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe693…dd17backed No54c300$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16227841%114 W · 164 L-0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No46c266.16$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.543,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No26c263$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.644,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes42c261.53$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.198,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe45e…fcb8backed Yes58c243$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.8711343.4%49 W · 64 L-0.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed No56c241.3$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.1356543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xebdb…5ac4backed No57c238$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.0485049.8%423 W · 427 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x759d…cc80backed No55c232.31$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.0377851.9%404 W · 374 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No51c210.5$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.5312,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No39c206.43$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.661,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No21c202.1$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.482,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa6dc…71a6backed No55c200$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1102416.7%4 W · 20 L-6.6wins-0.28per pick44cpaid-53.7%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No51c195.88$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.181,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No30c186.75$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.892,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No44c185$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.655,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf707…e8cebacked Yes51c180.62$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.745832.8%19 W · 39 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-17.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes36c177.01$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.4217,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8db4…9c07backed Yes67c173$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.059239.1%36 W · 56 L-6.7wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-38.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No62c172.54$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.1110,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No34c166.17$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.511,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5470…0af7backed No65c152.7$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10032872%236 W · 92 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick73cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No52c148.47$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.533,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd9c…f0c8backed Yes52c146.84$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.797347.9%35 W · 38 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No56c144.74$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.855,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a12…f7fdbacked Yes47c134.51$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.0616045.6%73 W · 87 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No49c128.88$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.1580560.6%488 W · 317 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes48c127.21$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.8513838.4%53 W · 85 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-21.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No37c126.61$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.1588650.2%445 W · 441 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2868…9b6bbacked Yes75c122.34$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.1616543.6%72 W · 93 L+9.5wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-3.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No49c120$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.186,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No48c120$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.733,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea5e…a678backed No20c120$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.61,21842%512 W · 706 L+31.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No16c116.82$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.142,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x50d8…0a0ebacked No64c114.65$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.139968.9%275 W · 124 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick70cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes36c110.59$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.941,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No55c110$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.52,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No42c109.99$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.662,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No45c107.29$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.915,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No26c106$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.031,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8ed…156fbacked Yes43c105$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.8512351.2%63 W · 60 L-9.5wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-12.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes59c102.36$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.3631943.3%138 W · 181 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ecf…af11backed Yes41c100$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.3138138.6%147 W · 234 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2ed…9d98backed No12c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.582268.7%565 W · 257 L+72.3wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+17.4%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x951c…d8c7backed Yes42c100$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.1268335.4%242 W · 441 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes52c100$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.461,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1917…138bbacked Yes43c93.66$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.3933746.9%158 W · 179 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed No51c93.17$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.861,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No46c92.18$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.1112,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xd221…4331backed Yes51c90$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.19746.4%45 W · 52 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No53c89$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.522,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No53c87.73$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.093,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef49…d27bbacked Yes53c87.68$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4121651.9%112 W · 104 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No33c86.34$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.682,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbc51…b9e8backed Yes56c80.42$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.3810134.7%35 W · 66 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No33c80.31$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.232,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No36c72.76$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.912,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No57c72.02$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.393,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7da5…0865backed Yes56c64.95$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.584858.3%28 W · 20 L-3.3wins-0.07per pick65cpaid-11.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x51dd…4053backed No65c64.07$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.8340352.4%211 W · 192 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes39c64$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.242,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked No47c63.83$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa46e…fec5backed Yes53c62.21$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.472040%8 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-18.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed No53c60.64$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.141,19057.9%689 W · 501 L-5.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No48c59$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.372,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0fc4…acc4backed Yes34c54.64$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.092638.5%10 W · 16 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+11.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No44c54.16$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.832,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ea8…d76ebacked Yes31c53.45$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.7211729.9%35 W · 82 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3646…ba5abacked Yes49c51$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.1240741.3%168 W · 239 L+32.5wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+21.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xb427…4c62backed Yes35c50.52$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.6222350.7%113 W · 110 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4bb…1b2fbacked No52c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.7wins-0.21per pick51cpaid-45.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4125…868cbacked No48c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248240.2%33 W · 49 L-7.1wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-18.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4bbe…c224backed Yes50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-12.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe550…6f6ebacked Yes73c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.7114161.7%87 W · 54 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes48c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c54…02e9backed Yes46c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276150.8%31 W · 30 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80cc…4c27backed No51c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.51952.6%10 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50b1…0793backed No55c50$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.543663.5%277 W · 159 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick62cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes37c50$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.53,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x89cc…9e01backed No56c50$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289752.6%51 W · 46 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes49c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.524046.7%112 W · 128 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed No62c49.9$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.7543848.6%213 W · 225 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c7a…7be5backed No50c48.02$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.163545.7%16 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdaf2…76f0backed No48c48$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.041729.4%5 W · 12 L-2.5wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-26.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x40eb…ade9backed Yes56c47.7$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.149547.1%233 W · 262 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3dd1…557ebacked No48c47$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.771,16959.4%694 W · 475 L+30.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb033…4f19backed Yes43c46.83$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.695343.4%23 W · 30 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-13.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1056…3c9dbacked No51c39.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa616…5368backed Yes37c38.41$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.331637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-13%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5042…f296backed Yes50c38$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.039744.3%43 W · 54 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No54c37.53$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.451,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No63c36.53$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.974,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6854…67d0backed No46c35.7$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5861752.8%326 W · 291 L-1.5wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.