Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x562ab08ccb4c839da48efc419ba708aaadca6b1776a3a15ace7a1416180f1abf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,827
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,690
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,827 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 125 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 46c | 2,756$1,264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,492.1 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 52c | 541.67$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.42 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 55c | 509.43$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.19 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 57c | 480.11$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.1 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 72c | 441.87$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.15 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked No | 12c | 420.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.71 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 57c | 347.47$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.81 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…ac6ebacked No | 47c | 337.98$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.06 | 146 | 46.6%68 W · 78 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…dd17backed No | 54c | 300$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 46c | 266.16$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.54 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 26c | 263$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.64 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 42c | 261.53$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.19 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…fcb8backed Yes | 58c | 243$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.87 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 56c | 241.3$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.13 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 57c | 238$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.04 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 55c | 232.31$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.03 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 51c | 210.5$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.53 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 39c | 206.43$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.66 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 21c | 202.1$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.48 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6dc…71a6backed No | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -6.6wins | -0.28per pick | 44cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 51c | 195.88$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.18 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 30c | 186.75$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.89 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 44c | 185$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.65 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf707…e8cebacked Yes | 51c | 180.62$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.74 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 36c | 177.01$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.42 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8db4…9c07backed Yes | 67c | 173$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.05 | 92 | 39.1%36 W · 56 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 62c | 172.54$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.11 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 34c | 166.17$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.51 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 65c | 152.7$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 52c | 148.47$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.53 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…f0c8backed Yes | 52c | 146.84$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.79 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 56c | 144.74$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.85 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a12…f7fdbacked Yes | 47c | 134.51$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.06 | 160 | 45.6%73 W · 87 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 49c | 128.88$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.15 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes | 48c | 127.21$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.85 | 138 | 38.4%53 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 37c | 126.61$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.15 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2868…9b6bbacked Yes | 75c | 122.34$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.16 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 49c | 120$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.18 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 48c | 120$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.73 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 20c | 120$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 16c | 116.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 64c | 114.65$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.1 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 36c | 110.59$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.94 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 55c | 110$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.5 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 42c | 109.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.66 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 45c | 107.29$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.91 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 26c | 106$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.03 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ed…156fbacked Yes | 43c | 105$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.85 | 123 | 51.2%63 W · 60 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 59c | 102.36$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.36 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.31 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.12 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.46 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked Yes | 43c | 93.66$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.39 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 51c | 93.17$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.86 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 46c | 92.18$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.11 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd221…4331backed Yes | 51c | 90$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.1 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 53c | 89$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.52 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 53c | 87.73$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.09 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked Yes | 53c | 87.68$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 33c | 86.34$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.68 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc51…b9e8backed Yes | 56c | 80.42$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.38 | 101 | 34.7%35 W · 66 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 33c | 80.31$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.23 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 36c | 72.76$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.91 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 57c | 72.02$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.39 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7da5…0865backed Yes | 56c | 64.95$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.58 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 65c | 64.07$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.83 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 39c | 64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.24 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa46e…fec5backed Yes | 53c | 62.21$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.47 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 53c | 60.64$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.14 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 48c | 59$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.37 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc4…acc4backed Yes | 34c | 54.64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.09 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 44c | 54.16$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea8…d76ebacked Yes | 31c | 53.45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 117 | 29.9%35 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 49c | 51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.12 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…4c62backed Yes | 35c | 50.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.62 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bb…1b2fbacked No | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4125…868cbacked No | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | -7.1wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…c224backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…6f6ebacked Yes | 73c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.71 | 141 | 61.7%87 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c54…02e9backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80cc…4c27backed No | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89cc…9e01backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 49c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 62c | 49.9$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c7a…7be5backed No | 50c | 48.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf2…76f0backed No | 48c | 48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 56c | 47.7$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 48c | 47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb033…4f19backed Yes | 43c | 46.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.69 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1056…3c9dbacked No | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa616…5368backed Yes | 37c | 38.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.33 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…f296backed Yes | 50c | 38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.03 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 54c | 37.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 63c | 36.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 46c | 35.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on June 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.