Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd918d2c8497cffd5b65f6bd810c29d37b6f81e9ac3bc9b755822f6219d417609
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,667
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,496
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,667 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f3c…ca16backed No | 3c | 563.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 149 | 34.2%51 W · 98 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 61c | 494$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.66 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 47c | 303.96$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.84 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 64c | 295.01$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.2 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 43c | 248.14$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.54 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 66c | 157.33$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.78 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 58c | 146.19$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.06 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 26c | 129.96$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.83 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed No | 47c | 127.66$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 214 | 72%154 W · 60 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 46c | 125.74$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.25 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 44c | 114.54$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.97 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 14c | 112.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 42c | 112$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.04 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 40c | 110.97$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.93 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 38c | 102$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.62 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed Yes | 45c | 101.28$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.35 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 10c | 97.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 61c | 94$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.78 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 35c | 91$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.26 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 44c | 90.48$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.58 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 38c | 74$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 55c | 73.08$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.02 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 39c | 65.34$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 55c | 59.61$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 34c | 54.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.01 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 50c | 52.42$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 38c | 51.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d8…a8cebacked Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed No | 37c | 49.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 36c | 49.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5215…6060backed No | 57c | 42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.20per pick | 58cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e09…9dc9backed Yes | 60c | 40.57$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.23 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +23%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed No | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34f6…5d76backed Yes | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…9611backed No | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae19…5cb0backed No | 65c | 34.55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 56c | 34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…44c4backed Yes | 45c | 31.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.31 | 154 | 49.4%76 W · 78 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 39c | 27.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 52c | 26.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.94 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 46c | 26.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 52c | 26.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 42c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 58c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 43c | 23.49$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 56c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 49c | 20.72$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 53c | 20.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfca2…9488backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa109…7e42backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 110 | 68.2%75 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62ae…107dbacked Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ec…710abacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 135 | 45.9%62 W · 73 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 68c | 19.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 56c | 18.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.