Lol · resolved market
League of Legends: Movistar KOI vs. Natus Vincere
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd9252fb86e266438f4795039883d9df94cb0cc637e911d0317c5c1b7c2ac0e55
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Movistar KOIof Movistar KOI, Natus Vincere
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,825
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,669
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,825 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Natus Vincere | 12c | 21,821$2,636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,636.01 | 364 | 33.8%123 W · 241 L | -17.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Natus Vincere | 4c | 5,095$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.3 | 2,362 | 32%755 W · 1,607 L | +42.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Natus Vincere | 14c | 3,839$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.94 | 120 | 45.8%55 W · 65 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Movistar KOI | 79c | 3,128$2,476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$651.81 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Natus Vincere | 26c | 2,124$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559 | 1,598 | 42.4%677 W · 921 L | -17.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Natus Vincere | 9c | 1,100$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3,584 | 40.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L | +31.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c3…1f5fbacked Movistar KOI | 71c | 700$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203 | 796 | 53.1%423 W · 373 L | -17.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…8cc5backed Natus Vincere | 11c | 500$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.35 | 1,180 | 44.5%525 W · 655 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Natus Vincere | 10c | 311.8$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.18 | 924 | 50.9%470 W · 454 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Natus Vincere | 14c | 212.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.39 | 850 | 46%391 W · 459 L | -11.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d2…4f20backed Natus Vincere | 16c | 155$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 98 | 45.9%45 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x476b…8a58backed Natus Vincere | 14c | 145$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 1,136 | 63.1%717 W · 419 L | +51.0wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfcf…a26ebacked Natus Vincere | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 363 | 31.1%113 W · 250 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf92c…60e7backed Natus Vincere | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 168 | 28.6%48 W · 120 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0edd…3db1backed Natus Vincere | 14c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48e2…35c7backed Movistar KOI | 75c | 73.33$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 63 | 65.1%41 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc661…38ccbacked Natus Vincere | 37c | 67.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.