Tennis · resolved market
BNP Paribas Nordic Open: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd928238afc7457ee2406e92fd16ceff4cc59e7e42dcb8f38614196004cea292d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kovacevicof Kovacevic, Carabelli
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,553
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,600
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,553 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Carabelli | 0c | 13,372$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6937…085dbacked Carabelli | 29c | 3,723$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,079.67 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Kovacevic | 68c | 2,000$1,364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.13 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Carabelli | 51c | 1,915$985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$984.86 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae87…e848backed Kovacevic | 42c | 1,904$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,104.33 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Kovacevic | 71c | 1,425$1,006 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed Carabelli | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 576 | 45.5%262 W · 314 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Kovacevic | 69c | 999$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.76 | 170 | 46.5%79 W · 91 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Kovacevic | 61c | 979.86$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.93 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Carabelli | 56c | 796.98$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.28 | 245 | 44.9%110 W · 135 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…8f58backed Kovacevic | 43c | 696.98$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.28 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +84.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Carabelli | 49c | 599$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.51 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56fb…3b99backed Kovacevic | 34c | 500$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Carabelli | 55c | 391.15$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.06 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6466…4633backed Kovacevic | 36c | 237.82$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.92 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f8…a24dbacked Kovacevic | 71c | 202$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.58 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Carabelli | 28c | 200$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa91…eac3backed Carabelli | 30c | 185.52$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.58 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Carabelli | 64c | 185$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.1 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7be1…200ebacked Carabelli | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 251 | 52.6%132 W · 119 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Kovacevic | 70c | 73.33$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01cd…c56cbacked Carabelli | 30c | 70.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3823…2784backed Carabelli | 69c | 57.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 321 | 61.7%198 W · 123 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa318…0c71backed Kovacevic | 69c | 46$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Carabelli | 49c | 40.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc36a…be63backed Carabelli | 65c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x347a…83e3backed Carabelli | 40c | 33.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 313 | 39.9%125 W · 188 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe0…7f8bbacked Carabelli | 43c | 25.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Kovacevic | 50c | 23.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Kovacevic | 69c | 20.65$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x978d…05fbbacked Kovacevic | 72c | 15.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.