Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on July 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd92e192d73cea9e3e62ac981a3f6586c3b54c262a1554f51ac1b69443e791dea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,109
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,139
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,109 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5fe7…1ea9backed Yes | 74c | 2,477$1,822 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$655.15 | 155 | 70.3%109 W · 46 L | +23.6wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 10c | 574.07$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.52 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 12c | 455.91$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.83 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 12c | 390.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.39 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 18c | 292.17$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.67 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 28c | 233.35$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.43 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed Yes | 9c | 211.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.36 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e5…d1f0backed Yes | 27c | 199.98$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.98 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 37c | 187.95$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.52 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b6…4ad7backed No | 34c | 174.29$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55bc…52d8backed No | 54c | 170.6$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.78 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 72c | 140.47$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 11c | 138.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb8…a530backed No | 73c | 137.59$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 65c | 129.25$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.55 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed No | 67c | 125.22$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.37 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 28c | 107.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.29 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 40c | 91.91$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.37 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 35c | 85.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.4 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5c…cda7backed Yes | 71c | 83.95$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.26 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.7wins | +0.26per pick | 45cpaid | +78.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 37c | 77.05$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c5…f991backed Yes | 72c | 73.96$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 69cpaid | -43%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe522…8c25backed No | 69c | 72.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 53c | 72.09$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.52 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f7…c14bbacked No | 68c | 69.95$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.79 | 109 | 73.4%80 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 49c | 66.24$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.3 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 28c | 65.84$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.21 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc399…53abbacked No | 73c | 63.38$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.45 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | -8.5wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 65c | 61.39$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.14 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 49c | 57.05$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5a…edf2backed Yes | 36c | 56.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.01 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 33c | 53.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.78 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 34c | 52.84$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.64 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c8…0ed9backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 33c | 47.95$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.35 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1468…0745backed Yes | 31c | 45.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.69 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 40.74$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 64c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cb…6882backed Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed Yes | 34c | 39.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.29 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 34c | 39.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.29 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 49c | 39.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x282c…ddeabacked Yes | 41c | 36.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.77 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa6…49a1backed No | 70c | 35.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 64c | 32.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked Yes | 32c | 32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.76 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 33c | 31.85$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 42c | 31.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 292 | 81.5%238 W · 54 L | +27.9wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 29.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 59c | 29.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1a…af71backed No | 72c | 20.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 52c | 20.18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed No | 67c | 17.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 69c | 17.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 280 | 68.6%192 W · 88 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…0d51backed Yes | 68c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 142 | 50.7%72 W · 70 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 64c | 16.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 16.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 79c | 15.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.16 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…4dedbacked No | 72c | 13.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on July 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on July 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.