Tennis · resolved market
Santa Cruz: Valerio Aboian vs Thiago Cigarran
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd961b0de92da8d75046249bc46543c4bb0cde0e96fb2801a5e479299b7c9dbae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Valerio Aboianof Valerio Aboian, Thiago Cigarran
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,283
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,746
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,283 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4df2…c11dbacked Thiago Cigarran | 15c | 1,410$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.67 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Valerio Aboian | 73c | 1,264$925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.09 | 3,072 | 44.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L | -30.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c6…b50bbacked Thiago Cigarran | 29c | 1,156$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.44 | 89 | 46.1%41 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8c…dc9ebacked Thiago Cigarran | 9c | 1,050$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.54 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95bd…b9bebacked Thiago Cigarran | 26c | 956.66$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.4 | 127 | 50.4%64 W · 63 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5267…f0adbacked Thiago Cigarran | 29c | 881.66$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Thiago Cigarran | 20c | 598.81$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.76 | 1,028 | 33.6%345 W · 683 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1650…42f6backed Thiago Cigarran | 8c | 426.34$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.01 | 69 | 33.3%23 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Thiago Cigarran | 19c | 406$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.36 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ed…5dc7backed Valerio Aboian | 71c | 393.04$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.98 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | +5.4wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Thiago Cigarran | 28c | 360.64$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.73 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eaf…507bbacked Thiago Cigarran | 37c | 260.18$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.22 | 181 | 33.1%60 W · 121 L | -14.8wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Valerio Aboian | 72c | 243.88$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.69 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b5…5b6abacked Thiago Cigarran | 24c | 225.53$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.07 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc953…01bfbacked Thiago Cigarran | 30c | 219$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.7 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d78…a4ccbacked Valerio Aboian | 71c | 139.53$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.46 | 330 | 55.8%184 W · 146 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Thiago Cigarran | 20c | 137.84$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.57 | 423 | 44.2%187 W · 236 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46ff…6672backed Thiago Cigarran | 8c | 129.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 155 | 12.9%20 W · 135 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70f9…f25bbacked Valerio Aboian | 70c | 114.89$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.47 | 990 | 56%554 W · 436 L | +32.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Valerio Aboian | 71c | 99.64$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.9 | 852 | 50%426 W · 426 L | +22.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c3…079fbacked Valerio Aboian | 74c | 95$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 893 | 64.4%575 W · 318 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked Thiago Cigarran | 23c | 91.89$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 923 | 52.5%485 W · 438 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42c9…9623backed Thiago Cigarran | 29c | 87.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 4,703 | 49.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L | +166.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f6…a5eebacked Valerio Aboian | 70c | 85.43$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.63 | 599 | 54.9%329 W · 270 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Thiago Cigarran | 23c | 84.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 3,270 | 13.8%450 W · 2,820 L | -549.1wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed Valerio Aboian | 71c | 84.5$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.51 | 812 | 55.3%449 W · 363 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98db…dd17backed Thiago Cigarran | 19c | 82.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 5,350 | 56.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L | +228.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Valerio Aboian | 77c | 76$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.48 | 1,276 | 61%778 W · 498 L | +27.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a11…de7cbacked Thiago Cigarran | 20c | 72.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d4…6297backed Thiago Cigarran | 19c | 67.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 161 | 44.7%72 W · 89 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa415…6fb9backed Valerio Aboian | 76c | 67$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.08 | 584 | 53.1%310 W · 274 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e31…5e8ebacked Valerio Aboian | 78c | 61.81$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.67 | 134 | 50.7%68 W · 66 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbced…5808backed Valerio Aboian | 70c | 50.08$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 345 | 60%207 W · 138 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Valerio Aboian | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Valerio Aboian | 77c | 45.8$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 977 | 45.2%442 W · 535 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…b579backed Thiago Cigarran | 24c | 45.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd77…ef21backed Valerio Aboian | 62c | 31.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 652 | 64.1%418 W · 234 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x295f…75ffbacked Valerio Aboian | 79c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0642…8c68backed Valerio Aboian | 76c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 643 | 58.8%378 W · 265 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5101…4a4fbacked Valerio Aboian | 72c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 253 | 66.8%169 W · 84 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…9d28backed Valerio Aboian | 76c | 24.16$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe4…f12fbacked Valerio Aboian | 71c | 21.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 586 | 65.5%384 W · 202 L | +18.2wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34e1…02bfbacked Valerio Aboian | 78c | 18.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 61 | 68.9%42 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 74cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca20…7b68backed Valerio Aboian | 74c | 16.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 574 | 47.7%274 W · 300 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Valerio Aboian | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 371 | 53.9%200 W · 171 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Santa Cruz: Valerio Aboian vs Thiago Cigarranthis page
- Aboian vs. Cigarran: Match O/U 21.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.