Serie A · resolved market
US Cremonese vs. US Lecce: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd96685db9af1d33ee09b9b0d41e2af4455cc870da395b75dbea24af66743fd75
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,561
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,208
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,561 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 49c | 3,190$1,566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,566.13 | 969 | 42.3%410 W · 559 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 66c | 2,595$1,725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$869.35 | 333 | 57.4%191 W · 142 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 32c | 1,500$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 366 | 30.9%113 W · 253 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa645…0be6backed Over | 34c | 878.97$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580.12 | 83 | 34.9%29 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9d…e6c3backed Under | 56c | 714.29$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Over | 53c | 566.04$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.04 | 91 | 54.9%50 W · 41 L | +8.0wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 33c | 443.99$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.52 | 99 | 58.6%58 W · 41 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 45c | 369.79$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.61 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 34c | 291.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.76 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Over | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.78 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8816…7082backed Over | 65c | 264.12$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.44 | 109 | 51.4%56 W · 53 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Over | 61c | 260.09$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.71 | 592 | 40.7%241 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6b…075fbacked Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 66c | 190.06$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.62 | 208 | 41.8%87 W · 121 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…8edcbacked Over | 59c | 152.54$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.54 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x024e…2e48backed Over | 43c | 150$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +5.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 48 | 72.9%35 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 54c | 92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.32 | 176 | 51.7%91 W · 85 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…50d9backed Over | 67c | 88.06$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.06 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -5.1wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -34%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5825…4ffbbacked Over | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc450…f2f7backed Over | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 45c | 73.09$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.95 | 527 | 48%253 W · 274 L | -35.4wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14b8…81a9backed Over | 42c | 64.29$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.29 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b2…c24ebacked Over | 50c | 60.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 80 | 65%52 W · 28 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1d…6a8bbacked Over | 35c | 60$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc8…8198backed Over | 56c | 57.49$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -5.3wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xecc6…a1c4backed Over | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f9b…555cbacked Over | 64c | 49.91$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65ea…223fbacked Under | 35c | 43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee2…035dbacked Over | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | +6.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 53c | 37.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.41 | 170 | 58.2%99 W · 71 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 57c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 284 | 45.4%129 W · 155 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 37c | 30.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 932 | 52%485 W · 447 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Over | 54c | 29.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 147 | 40.8%60 W · 87 L | -14.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f9f…c934backed Over | 46c | 25.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd323…64acbacked Over | 59c | 21.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36e9…9c03backed Under | 52c | 19.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5007…493fbacked Over | 64c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5935…b8dabacked Over | 65c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 59cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US Cremonese vs. US Lecce: O/U 1.5this page
- Spread: US Cremonese (-1.5)US Cremonese won
- US Cremonese vs. US Lecce: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- US Cremonese vs. US Lecce: O/U 2.5Under won
- US Cremonese vs. US Lecce: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.