Serie A · resolved market
US Cremonese vs. US Lecce: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x661743cc1f2c054e960c46a9459537dccd530f4992158394ee825f68973358f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,140
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,776
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,140 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 65c | 2,067$1,338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$729.13 | 969 | 42.3%410 W · 559 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9d…e6c3backed Over | 42c | 1,858$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$779.71 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 58c | 1,491$865 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$626.14 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8efe…7b44backed Over | 39c | 1,060$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4103…9b9ebacked Over | 38c | 704$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 61c | 443.99$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.15 | 99 | 58.6%58 W · 41 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6b…075fbacked Under | 70c | 300$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 62c | 272.42$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.52 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 64c | 262.4$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.78 | 592 | 40.7%241 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75ef…cb71backed Over | 41c | 258.05$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.8 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa266…67f7backed Over | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 114 | 29.8%34 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 58c | 238.1$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25c2…e0cfbacked Over | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc049…48abbacked Over | 39c | 206.79$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.65 | 107 | 36.4%39 W · 68 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Under | 61c | 203.28$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.28 | 339 | 51.6%175 W · 164 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5993…33a2backed Over | 42c | 200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x024e…2e48backed Over | 19c | 180$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +5.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3414…067abacked Over | 39c | 154.32$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa35f…b58fbacked Over | 38c | 130.25$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 99 | 37.4%37 W · 62 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee1…e2bbbacked Over | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 30c | 91.81$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.76 | 932 | 52%485 W · 447 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1d…6a8bbacked Over | 39c | 84.17$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9773…67e8backed Under | 63c | 81$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.97 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 70c | 76.67$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 527 | 48%253 W · 274 L | -35.4wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 62c | 73.75$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.02 | 208 | 41.8%87 W · 121 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 387 | 39.8%154 W · 233 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa89e…4ab4backed Under | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 94 | 56.4%53 W · 41 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74d7…6beabacked Over | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 59 | 18.6%11 W · 48 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -33%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9b…829ebacked Over | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 123 | 47.2%58 W · 65 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Over | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 47 | 27.7%13 W · 34 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed Over | 37c | 37.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -4.9wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb81d…c6c0backed Under | 62c | 36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…48bbbacked Over | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0501…61ecbacked Under | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bee…aa9ebacked Over | 38c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7f…91ebbacked Under | 65c | 15.78$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x082b…5e67backed Under | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US Cremonese vs. US Lecce: O/U 2.5this page
- Spread: US Cremonese (-1.5)US Cremonese won
- US Cremonese vs. US Lecce: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- US Cremonese vs. US Lecce: O/U 1.5Over won
- US Cremonese vs. US Lecce: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.