TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Cornell Big Red vs. Princeton Tigers

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Cornell Big Redof Cornell Big Red, Princeton Tigers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$52,382
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$59,746

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,382 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xead1…c76abacked Cornell Big Red62c8,742$5,398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,343.691,51147.8%722 W · 789 L-35.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Princeton Tigers39c8,451$3,281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,280.8561652.8%325 W · 291 L+21.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Princeton Tigers32c6,385$2,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,020.485,94649.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L+163.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xada5…db70backed Cornell Big Red61c6,167$3,772 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,395.5637947.8%181 W · 198 L-26.2wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-17.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x33dd…ef8abacked Princeton Tigers38c2,500$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95027851.1%142 W · 136 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Cornell Big Red68c2,159$1,459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$699.633,38049.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L+30.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Cornell Big Red61c2,103$1,284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$818.931,15550.4%582 W · 573 L-34.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcdb8…abbebacked Princeton Tigers28c1,411$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396.091,98326.4%523 W · 1,460 L-55.5wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Princeton Tigers29c1,293$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371.584,84852.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L+139.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Princeton Tigers38c1,000$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3802,68748.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L+4.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Cornell Big Red62c948.14$586 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.8468254.3%370 W · 312 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Princeton Tigers26c823.73$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.892,04832.7%670 W · 1,378 L-16.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a0c…9db8backed Princeton Tigers39c769.8$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.1212748.8%62 W · 65 L-4.9wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Princeton Tigers38c731.95$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.286538.5%25 W · 40 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-17%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Cornell Big Red75c692$517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.0149747.5%236 W · 261 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked Cornell Big Red75c667$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.2425246.4%117 W · 135 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c9e…bba8backed Cornell Big Red75c658$491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.7414643.2%63 W · 83 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-21.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9405…c071backed Princeton Tigers39c651.99$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.2844549.4%220 W · 225 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-3.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7aa8…56dbbacked Princeton Tigers12c637.18$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.461,05855.8%590 W · 468 L+34.2wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-2.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Cornell Big Red60c591.88$358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.1112,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd9b…414dbacked Cornell Big Red60c492$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.8330249.3%149 W · 153 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Cornell Big Red70c394.42$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.053,90558.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L+165.3wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+4.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0370…d000backed Princeton Tigers4c394.06$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2294036.9%347 W · 593 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5734…5c4abacked Cornell Big Red75c364.04$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.6250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-33.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2dc4…0c92backed Princeton Tigers40c360.74$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.0599045.6%451 W · 539 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Cornell Big Red75c345.19$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.361,07443.3%465 W · 609 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x59b6…307fbacked Cornell Big Red61c327.87$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.8745351.4%233 W · 220 L-16.8wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Princeton Tigers11c304.39$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.143,68442.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L+32.6wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked Princeton Tigers41c293$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.1350745.2%229 W · 278 L+0.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Princeton Tigers10c276.82$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.7625337.5%95 W · 158 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-18.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9351…ef0fbacked Princeton Tigers39c257$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.2313743.8%60 W · 77 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Princeton Tigers39c256.4$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004,55250.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L-36.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8532…738bbacked Princeton Tigers44c250$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11017051.2%87 W · 83 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf988…d63bbacked Princeton Tigers41c250$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.512251.6%63 W · 59 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+10.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Princeton Tigers21c246.89$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.631,66736.4%607 W · 1,060 L-4.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e8d…e22dbacked Princeton Tigers40c232.98$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.1924340.7%99 W · 144 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b7a…bc22backed Princeton Tigers23c217.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5014325.9%37 W · 106 L-8.7wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-28.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Princeton Tigers41c200$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$822,19433.4%733 W · 1,461 L+19.2wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f6b…075fbacked Cornell Big Red77c200$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4614151.1%72 W · 69 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-9.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8cc…015bbacked Princeton Tigers40c200$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$808254.9%45 W · 37 L+6.8wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+2.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xae09…60a2backed Princeton Tigers42c198$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.16633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-35.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Princeton Tigers12c183.13$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.982,55541.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x560a…a398backed Cornell Big Red58c180$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.6757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+16.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc653…bb8cbacked Cornell Big Red61c163.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.9339050.5%197 W · 193 L-34.9wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-15.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Cornell Big Red76c161.57$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.315,55347.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L+26.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x133a…f9d1backed Princeton Tigers38c150$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579258.7%54 W · 38 L+7.2wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+14.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Cornell Big Red69c142.1$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.761,29645.1%584 W · 712 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2fd5…ef85backed Princeton Tigers25c135.95$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.325239.3%99 W · 153 L-0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00cf…d102backed Cornell Big Red59c132.73$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.4221449.5%106 W · 108 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0fd…583abacked Princeton Tigers40c130$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$521637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-16.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Cornell Big Red60c100$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.722,25442.2%951 W · 1,303 L+3.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x963b…3629backed Princeton Tigers41c100$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd940…5b64backed Cornell Big Red59c100$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Princeton Tigers38c99.97$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.9993941.6%391 W · 548 L+25.4wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xacbe…85d4backed Princeton Tigers41c99.96$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.985738.6%22 W · 35 L-6.5wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-24.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Princeton Tigers40c90.35$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.1237835.7%135 W · 243 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79f0…6765backed Princeton Tigers41c90$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb93b…efacbacked Cornell Big Red59c90$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Princeton Tigers39c82.18$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.051,15248.9%563 W · 589 L+3.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3af…749fbacked Cornell Big Red61c81.97$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.972100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+91.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe624…2928backed Cornell Big Red60c70$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2840849.8%203 W · 205 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44f0…432cbacked Princeton Tigers40c67.25$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.975447.1%355 W · 399 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x94fa…989ebacked Princeton Tigers38c60.56$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0881453.1%432 W · 382 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+3.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Cornell Big Red71c56.82$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.2877142.3%326 W · 445 L+2.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-17%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a50…ea80backed Princeton Tigers40c53.33$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3312141.3%50 W · 71 L+12.3wins+0.10per pick31cpaid+40.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x372d…a119backed Princeton Tigers33c51.32$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.194654.3%25 W · 21 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e8f…1f83backed Princeton Tigers25c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.564658.8%380 W · 266 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid+1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b12…7a77backed Cornell Big Red61c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.552353.5%280 W · 243 L-17.9wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-5.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7205…3377backed Princeton Tigers39c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.51233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-20.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaafa…3471backed Princeton Tigers40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2025230.6%77 W · 175 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8eb7…d529backed Princeton Tigers42c49.93$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9321152.1%110 W · 101 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xedc6…05dfbacked Princeton Tigers42c45.24$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192951.7%15 W · 14 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid+8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Cornell Big Red71c44.59$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.752,12450.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L+40.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Princeton Tigers30c43.35$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.851,24916.4%205 W · 1,044 L-189.4wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-51.1%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xcf05…a49ebacked Princeton Tigers40c38.89$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5620%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8a97…c1f9backed Cornell Big Red60c37.67$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.0721955.3%121 W · 98 L+13.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+13.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x22cc…8aeabacked Cornell Big Red59c37.03$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.1822730.4%69 W · 158 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3384…3ccabacked Princeton Tigers41c36.59$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+30.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6f7…1f33backed Princeton Tigers44c34.09$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153928.2%11 W · 28 L-4.6wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-29.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xde93…8f77backed Cornell Big Red61c32.79$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.791100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b8f…c01dbacked Cornell Big Red64c31.39$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.39650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-15.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc898…a9b9backed Cornell Big Red80c31.25$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3eff…ae12backed Princeton Tigers40c30.03$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0142339.2%166 W · 257 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+12.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x79f9…c9fdbacked Princeton Tigers41c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+126.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb05c…5443backed Cornell Big Red56c30$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x489d…f6e3backed Princeton Tigers39c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.843053.3%229 W · 201 L-12.1wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Cornell Big Red67c29.85$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.859153.8%49 W · 42 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf8bf…1c35backed Cornell Big Red78c29.49$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.491100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7474…3e91backed Cornell Big Red80c27.5$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.5450%2 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb02b…6350backed Cornell Big Red79c25.25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0fd2…a7aebacked Princeton Tigers40c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick52cpaid-32.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe5f0…0e3abacked Cornell Big Red61c24.59$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.591100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x64b7…1dd8backed Cornell Big Red62c20.97$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.97666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+27.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d6c…45f2backed Cornell Big Red61c20.23$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+62.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbc5…2585backed Cornell Big Red61c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.84355.8%24 W · 19 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa682…0e32backed Cornell Big Red60c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc25a…f243backed Cornell Big Red62c18.49$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.073786.5%32 W · 5 L+6.0wins+0.16per pick70cpaid+22.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x183b…9e4cbacked Cornell Big Red62c17.82$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Cornell Big Red79c13$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.731,88745.2%853 W · 1,034 L+6.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.