CS2 · resolved market
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd98404e4c68b96c7913a90b9ec821c01ab69159c02600ed50f4315e224dbbee8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,669
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,377
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,669 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa245…2152backed Under | 53c | 234.26$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.16 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe41f…d9dcbacked Over | 47c | 231.91$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.91 | 656 | 50.3%330 W · 326 L | -15.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 56c | 150$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 619 | 48%297 W · 322 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb64d…7392backed Over | 44c | 150$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb909…d559backed Under | 55c | 139.99$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 176 | 48.3%85 W · 91 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2f…dda3backed Over | 45c | 82.83$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x382c…c88bbacked Over | 45c | 77.64$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.7 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x267c…5bfdbacked Under | 64c | 45.86$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.35 | 179 | 55.3%99 W · 80 L | +11.8wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a8…b1f7backed Over | 47c | 44.68$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 119 | 44.5%53 W · 66 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x589a…8dc5backed Over | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 390 | 38.5%150 W · 240 L | -17.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3d…4d49backed Under | 69c | 42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95e9…67b6backed Under | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fd…10ccbacked Under | 66c | 33.47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 154 | 69.5%107 W · 47 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc313…6645backed Over | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 226 | 51.3%116 W · 110 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5this page
- Counter-Strike: BIG vs Spirit (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group ASpirit won
- Counter-Strike: BIG vs Spirit - Map 1 WinnerBIG won
- Counter-Strike: BIG vs Spirit - Map 2 WinnerSpirit won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs BIG (+3.5)BIG won
- Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Over won
- Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs BIG (+3.5)Spirit won
- Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs BIG (+1.5)BIG won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.