College Football · resolved market
Texas State vs. UTSA
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd9d68a5c92c0ed3c6e97fcbb977337111a0dfe765023d2e3bf4b6310281e8da2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Texas Stateof Texas State, UTSA
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,041
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,561
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,041 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Texas State | 37c | 31,740$11,638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,101.49 | 377 | 49.6%187 W · 190 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked UTSA | 64c | 21,445$13,622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,621.84 | 405 | 49.4%200 W · 205 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed UTSA | 63c | 5,494$3,456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,456.17 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked UTSA | 63c | 5,251$3,308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,308.13 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Texas State | 36c | 1,918$691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,227.75 | 494 | 43.7%216 W · 278 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed UTSA | 64c | 1,876$1,207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,206.59 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f2…5495backed UTSA | 64c | 1,719$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Texas State | 36c | 1,636$595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,041.2 | 237 | 51.1%121 W · 116 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea3e…b956backed Texas State | 73c | 1,175$863 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.73 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4132…a5a5backed UTSA | 65c | 1,168$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed UTSA | 44c | 918.44$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.49 | 553 | 50.3%278 W · 275 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…c116backed Texas State | 40c | 671.52$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed UTSA | 13c | 573.36$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.58 | 648 | 41.2%267 W · 381 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked UTSA | 63c | 459.95$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.77 | 503 | 58.1%292 W · 211 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Texas State | 36c | 450$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed UTSA | 7c | 444$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.86 | 237 | 0.8%2 W · 235 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -98.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked UTSA | 63c | 400$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 292 | 49%143 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28b1…5a3fbacked UTSA | 62c | 322.58$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61af…aa01backed UTSA | 70c | 300$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Texas State | 41c | 300$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.5 | 571 | 44.7%255 W · 316 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Texas State | 36c | 277$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.28 | 227 | 50.7%115 W · 112 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebd…3b11backed UTSA | 68c | 270$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.6 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked UTSA | 54c | 251.12$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.01 | 628 | 43.6%274 W · 354 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3545…741dbacked Texas State | 55c | 250.91$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.91 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed UTSA | 58c | 235$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.62 | 632 | 43.7%276 W · 356 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked Texas State | 38c | 200$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 102 | 42.2%43 W · 59 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed UTSA | 36c | 190$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.72 | 305 | 48.9%149 W · 156 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…6321backed Texas State | 38c | 134.61$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.46 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +104.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x582b…20afbacked Texas State | 36c | 127.78$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e62…1e28backed Texas State | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked UTSA | 62c | 97.84$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.66 | 492 | 53.5%263 W · 229 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd4…59b4backed UTSA | 63c | 84.65$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c9…cf27backed Texas State | 43c | 81.4$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Texas State | 38c | 75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 183 | 38.8%71 W · 112 L | -12.3wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c6…ed0abacked UTSA | 64c | 72.91$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.66 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc58b…d5b9backed UTSA | 64c | 72.64$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd30…327dbacked Texas State | 38c | 71.53$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed UTSA | 62c | 65.19$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.42 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x980d…985fbacked UTSA | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83c2…dccbbacked Texas State | 37c | 50.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Texas State | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 267 | 50.9%136 W · 131 L | +21.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4f…c4f2backed UTSA | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x955c…cc6fbacked UTSA | 63c | 49.27$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.04 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a66…5b12backed Texas State | 38c | 47.37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6be1…36d8backed UTSA | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Texas State | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Texas State vs. UTSAthis page
- Spread: UTSA (-4.5)Texas State won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.