Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Michigan State Spartans (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda0222035d3f1c4bea09fc32d054484799db1e92148fe6de35967d558c778185
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- UCLA Bruinsof Michigan State Spartans, UCLA Bruins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,500
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,500 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ec1…057cbacked UCLA Bruins | 53c | 9,270$4,956 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,313.42 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Michigan State Spartans | 46c | 8,177$3,801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,801.07 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a33…2534backed Michigan State Spartans | 49c | 2,198$1,076 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,076.13 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +6.4wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe235…aba2backed UCLA Bruins | 54c | 1,808$976 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$831.68 | 64 | 57.8%37 W · 27 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked UCLA Bruins | 50c | 1,600$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800 | 158 | 58.2%92 W · 66 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed UCLA Bruins | 51c | 1,474$752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$722.31 | 1,152 | 48.9%563 W · 589 L | +3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Michigan State Spartans | 47c | 1,288$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611.38 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Michigan State Spartans | 47c | 1,151$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.97 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked UCLA Bruins | 51c | 762$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.38 | 394 | 54.6%215 W · 179 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb98e…8823backed Michigan State Spartans | 50c | 507.52$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.76 | 144 | 47.2%68 W · 76 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Michigan State Spartans | 46c | 505.5$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.53 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda31…8e56backed Michigan State Spartans | 46c | 400$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8cc…2c44backed Michigan State Spartans | 49c | 398.25$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.13 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…1950backed Michigan State Spartans | 50c | 396.5$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.25 | 338 | 55%186 W · 152 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed UCLA Bruins | 52c | 290.12$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.18 | 1,234 | 44.8%553 W · 681 L | -32.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f8…17f1backed UCLA Bruins | 53c | 224.44$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.49 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c10…a305backed Michigan State Spartans | 50c | 219.69$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.04 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd36…6ec9backed UCLA Bruins | 51c | 212.82$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.28 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81f3…1f2abacked Michigan State Spartans | 50c | 198.25$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.13 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Michigan State Spartans | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Michigan State Spartans | 49c | 99.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | -12.1wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d6…e952backed Michigan State Spartans | 50c | 99.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2d…4f43backed UCLA Bruins | 50c | 97.94$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2f…eca9backed UCLA Bruins | 51c | 96.77$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.42 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | +7.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83ea…c2efbacked UCLA Bruins | 52c | 95.31$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.75 | 230 | 54.3%125 W · 105 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Michigan State Spartans | 50c | 69.39$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.69 | 130 | 50%65 W · 65 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Michigan State Spartans | 49c | 61.8$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.34 | 609 | 54.5%332 W · 277 L | +15.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbc…1d39backed UCLA Bruins | 52c | 59.48$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.55 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 50cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d94…954ebacked UCLA Bruins | 52c | 57.19$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.45 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…700bbacked Michigan State Spartans | 51c | 40.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.3wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9643…2dc9backed Michigan State Spartans | 50c | 39.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked Michigan State Spartans | 49c | 37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 162 | 43.8%71 W · 91 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Michigan State Spartans | 46c | 30.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa991…f266backed Michigan State Spartans | 50c | 29.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked UCLA Bruins | 56c | 28.28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 306 | 52%159 W · 147 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca20…7b68backed Michigan State Spartans | 51c | 19.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Michigan State Spartans (-5.5)this page
- Spread: UCLA Bruins (-3.5)UCLA Bruins won
- Spread: UCLA Bruins (-4.5)Michigan State Spartans won
- Spread: UCLA Bruins (-7.5)Michigan State Spartans won
- UCLA Bruins vs. Michigan State SpartansUCLA Bruins won
- UCLA Bruins vs. Michigan State Spartans: O/U 139.5Over won
- UCLA Bruins vs. Michigan State Spartans: O/U 140.5Over won
- UCLA Bruins vs. Michigan State Spartans: O/U 142.5Over won
- UCLA Bruins vs. Michigan State Spartans: O/U 143.5Over won
- UCLA Bruins vs. Michigan State Spartans: O/U 144.5Over won
- UCLA Bruins vs. Michigan State Spartans: O/U 145.5Over won
- UCLA Bruins vs. Michigan State Spartans: O/U 146.5Over won
- UCLA Bruins vs. Michigan State Spartans: O/U 149.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.