NHL · resolved market
Lightning vs. Oilers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda0486defda972ede67f5d41cc89a6c7576c8cc93915998734014749bf075e21
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Oilersof Lightning, Oilers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,535
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,100
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,535 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 167 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x20cc…ebc0backed Lightning | 16c | 2,097$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.88 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Lightning | 39c | 2,000$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780 | 355 | 45.4%161 W · 194 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4673…d99bbacked Lightning | 42c | 2,000$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$839.95 | 318 | 49.4%157 W · 161 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Oilers | 58c | 1,807$1,048 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$758.93 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…fbcebacked Oilers | 62c | 1,524$943 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580.3 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Lightning | 15c | 1,141$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.35 | 313 | 34.8%109 W · 204 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Lightning | 11c | 1,044$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.78 | 913 | 34.1%311 W · 602 L | -27.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Lightning | 42c | 1,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Oilers | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 851 | 48.5%413 W · 438 L | -48.2wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23ea…3ab2backed Oilers | 58c | 896.55$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.55 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 60cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Lightning | 41c | 723.26$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.34 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -5.2wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c57…5b16backed Lightning | 40c | 629.96$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.98 | 1,475 | 48.3%712 W · 763 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Oilers | 57c | 500$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215 | 1,025 | 40.8%418 W · 607 L | +15.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8167…3051backed Oilers | 78c | 495.21$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.65 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -4.4wins | -0.18per pick | 50cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7418…59e2backed Lightning | 41c | 392.82$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.05 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Lightning | 7c | 345.56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.39 | 745 | 0.7%5 W · 740 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -94.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf61b…f73ebacked Lightning | 44c | 299.82$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.13 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Oilers | 56c | 260$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.03 | 724 | 44.6%323 W · 401 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28b6…4eddbacked Lightning | 19c | 259.83$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | -7.3wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3168…6734backed Oilers | 76c | 248.67$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.65 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c91…0505backed Lightning | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc7…3a04backed Lightning | 24c | 201.32$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Oilers | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 1,039 | 55.2%574 W · 465 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Oilers | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 1,037 | 55%570 W · 467 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47e0…d485backed Lightning | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…5176backed Lightning | 41c | 196.59$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.6 | 298 | 47%140 W · 158 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ad…f186backed Oilers | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 135 | 62.2%84 W · 51 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…ec92backed Oilers | 57c | 121.15$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.1 | 543 | 49.5%269 W · 274 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Oilers | 58c | 119.78$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.78 | 181 | 36.5%66 W · 115 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…c206backed Lightning | 22c | 113.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Oilers | 55c | 107.65$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.58 | 840 | 51.4%432 W · 408 L | +19.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc018…018abacked Lightning | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa715…15e2backed Lightning | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed Oilers | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -5.2wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Oilers | 57c | 99.97$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.99 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Lightning | 41c | 98.98$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.58 | 818 | 46%376 W · 442 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9717…4144backed Oilers | 58c | 95.69$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0835…c0abbacked Lightning | 42c | 95.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9e…d9f9backed Oilers | 56c | 89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.16 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe63c…92b8backed Oilers | 59c | 88.78$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…a990backed Lightning | 23c | 86.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23be…da4fbacked Oilers | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 222 | 46.8%104 W · 118 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d2a…5502backed Oilers | 58c | 84.48$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36c0…67d5backed Lightning | 44c | 84.09$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf144…91d6backed Oilers | 59c | 81.36$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.36 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +75.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Oilers | 77c | 80$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 35 | 77.1%27 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 70cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5208…a175backed Oilers | 57c | 74.34$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa29…e215backed Oilers | 57c | 70.17$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.17 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2686…7a67backed Oilers | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 96 | 65.6%63 W · 33 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95ba…4b34backed Oilers | 57c | 64.91$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.91 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22c5…2dadbacked Lightning | 42c | 63.49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1738…41a1backed Lightning | 41c | 63.41$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x047a…2521backed Lightning | 41c | 60.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a04…3606backed Lightning | 41c | 60.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0a…66a5backed Lightning | 43c | 60.46$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5961…d0d5backed Oilers | 58c | 60.34$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.34 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -7.1wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5de6…f5aebacked Lightning | 43c | 54.87$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1984…241ebacked Lightning | 46c | 53.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 84 | 45.2%38 W · 46 L | -7.8wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x63f6…3e30backed Lightning | 40c | 53.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +28%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1268…94e0backed Lightning | 22c | 52.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedf5…098fbacked Lightning | 30c | 52.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x168b…fa28backed Lightning | 43c | 52.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69df…2520backed Oilers | 59c | 52.54$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97a2…9a47backed Lightning | 30c | 51.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f8…a3dfbacked Lightning | 41c | 51.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.32per pick | 46cpaid | -72%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6144…2fffbacked Oilers | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda4d…c8eebacked Lightning | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f8e…ecf4backed Lightning | 43c | 48.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x906e…99b5backed Lightning | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 56cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…7ec6backed Lightning | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x291b…cef1backed Lightning | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 49cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Lightning | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 572 | 38.1%218 W · 354 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc17a…1db3backed Lightning | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8655…a314backed Oilers | 60c | 44.58$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.88 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5395…9ea1backed Lightning | 44c | 44.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x084b…98d0backed Lightning | 46c | 43.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x644b…0fc6backed Oilers | 57c | 43.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.62 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0206…82b5backed Oilers | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…de7bbacked Lightning | 43c | 42.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -5.2wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae4d…2752backed Oilers | 77c | 42.4$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67b8…2449backed Oilers | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 102 | 55.9%57 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa0…eeb9backed Oilers | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.29per pick | 54cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x215b…bd73backed Oilers | 57c | 42.03$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.07 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +121.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81f1…9c1abacked Lightning | 43c | 41.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d66…f933backed Lightning | 43c | 41.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5d64…701dbacked Lightning | 42c | 41.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf94e…3caabacked Oilers | 57c | 41.24$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d7…25e9backed Lightning | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 138 | 46.4%64 W · 74 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb484…ad1ebacked Lightning | 42c | 39.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e54…727cbacked Oilers | 57c | 39.58$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bf…42a9backed Lightning | 43c | 39.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9f…ed15backed Lightning | 42c | 39.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1190…3b0cbacked Lightning | 43c | 38.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63e5…5b3dbacked Lightning | 41c | 38.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac67…f2dfbacked Lightning | 43c | 38.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6c…6f94backed Oilers | 59c | 37.55$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d39…b61bbacked Lightning | 41c | 37.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed9c…c9afbacked Oilers | 59c | 37.28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +101.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e1d…cac4backed Oilers | 61c | 37.12$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1174…d708backed Oilers | 57c | 36.84$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +47%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.