Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on July 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda1657ebff075039176ab67df77b328de8a8665fab2530dd508fae983fc130ac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,032
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,520
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,032 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 27c | 906.13$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.21 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 5c | 299.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 74c | 175.03$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.91 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 28c | 161.37$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.01 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 68c | 146.01$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.94 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 14c | 122.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 115.42$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.82 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 29c | 105.42$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.57 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 26c | 99.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 80c | 98.35$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 34c | 91.71$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.78 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 34c | 91.71$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.78 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 84.06$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.44 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 73c | 82.23$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.15 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 33c | 80.73$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 25c | 77.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 27c | 76.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 76c | 73.81$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.96 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7d…9cfbbacked Yes | 27c | 66.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 68c | 64$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 70c | 61$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 25c | 61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 70c | 56.07$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 25c | 56.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 77c | 52.01$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 76c | 51$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 70c | 46.21$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 25c | 44.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed Yes | 32c | 43.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 168 | 59.5%100 W · 68 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 70c | 40.66$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 77c | 38.93$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 67c | 38.15$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x254a…dacbbacked Yes | 27c | 38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 169 | 50.9%86 W · 83 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 27c | 37.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3580…714ebacked No | 76c | 35.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 63cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 34.4$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 31c | 34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf0…bc70backed No | 71c | 32.2$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +3.0wins | +0.30per pick | 60cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xecfd…dd23backed No | 70c | 31.61$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 78c | 31.15$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed No | 68c | 29.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 69c | 29.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc65e…0b4ebacked No | 75c | 26.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +3.1wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +26%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 73c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 77c | 23.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 75c | 22.75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa110…dc18backed No | 69c | 21.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 73c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 75c | 18.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaff5…14babacked No | 74c | 16.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 153 | 75.2%115 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fba…006dbacked No | 71c | 15.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.58 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf52…698cbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on July 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on July 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on July 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.