Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on July 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe58e9e3672c5891711b455a386a52c0c9af1e26c67bcfa8a1a0858afa67b551c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,970
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,107
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,970 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16cc…a6a1backed Yes | 40c | 1,972$794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$794.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 63c | 612.34$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.58 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 35c | 485.47$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.9 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 42c | 448.7$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.47 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed Yes | 59c | 420.31$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.34 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 65c | 339.92$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.51 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 56c | 302.95$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.3 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x837f…5d77backed Yes | 39c | 254.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 45c | 248.37$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.99 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 36c | 217.99$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.72 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 58c | 205.95$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.98 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 47c | 204.99$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.84 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 42c | 190.13$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.9 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 61c | 186.48$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.38 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 60c | 177.48$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.27 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed Yes | 44c | 174.68$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.09 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 63c | 172.09$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.01 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 41c | 171.2$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.35 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 38c | 163$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.74 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8959…e0d4backed Yes | 23c | 153.16$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.56 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 47c | 151.8$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.82 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 38c | 148.68$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.01 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes | 42c | 134.29$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 56c | 132.89$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.89 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 42c | 128$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.16 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 55c | 120.06$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.19 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 36c | 119.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 45c | 114.25$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.09 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 60c | 109$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.89 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 61c | 108.9$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.98 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 64c | 108.48$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.59 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 37c | 107.37$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 66c | 103$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.02 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 27c | 102.74$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.18 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf875…814dbacked Yes | 41c | 99.96$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.29 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 41c | 99.09$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.63 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 35c | 98.27$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.23 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 59c | 98$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.17 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 38c | 95.3$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.75 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 43c | 95$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 34c | 90$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 35c | 80$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 63c | 79.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.36 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf03b…34fdbacked No | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed Yes | 33c | 72.09$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…e06fbacked No | 70c | 72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.63 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 43c | 70$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3774…b424backed No | 65c | 70$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 32c | 69.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.13 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 44c | 69.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…3208backed Yes | 41c | 69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed No | 64c | 68.86$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 168 | 59.5%100 W · 68 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 61c | 68.78$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 62c | 65.64$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.19 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd79…989ebacked No | 62c | 64.34$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.45 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 62c | 64$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.03 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 40c | 63.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21a5…437ebacked No | 62c | 58.11$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.08 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4673…b24abacked No | 62c | 57.89$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 37c | 57.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 62c | 53.85$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 62c | 53.85$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 64c | 53.36$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.21 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 65c | 52.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca6…4beabacked Yes | 75c | 52.26$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 73 | 68.5%50 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb291…4937backed No | 64c | 51.1$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7d…9cfbbacked No | 61c | 50.8$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.91 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 43c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2be9…446ebacked Yes | 50c | 45.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74d5…195bbacked No | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1e…862ebacked No | 61c | 44.62$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 87 | 27.6%24 W · 63 L | -10.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 44c | 44.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked Yes | 32c | 44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 30c | 41.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 40c | 41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.41 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a5…9156backed Yes | 34c | 40.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 38c | 39.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0792…229fbacked No | 63c | 34.8$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 62cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 38c | 34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.99 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 44c | 33.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 65c | 33.68$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked Yes | 42c | 32.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 57c | 32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3175…9bb2backed Yes | 41c | 31.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 166 | 42.8%71 W · 95 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 53c | 31.44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fc…7a72backed Yes | 36c | 30.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 36c | 30.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 61c | 28.92$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.36 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed Yes | 43c | 28.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 63c | 28.24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on July 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on July 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on July 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.