Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on July 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x925332d66587e031ad8a459618276e61da779668246a3d85ac823d6e6a2ee7a4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,785
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,702
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,785 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 51c | 531.95$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.19 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 20c | 422.16$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.17 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 391.04$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.19 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 32c | 325$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.94 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed No | 59c | 272.89$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.94 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 53c | 255.02$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.68 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d82…9e66backed Yes | 50c | 228.68$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.32 | 120 | 46.7%56 W · 64 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes | 56c | 205.58$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.76 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 47c | 201.88$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.47 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed Yes | 42c | 196.69$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.08 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 66c | 189.43$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.49 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 46c | 188.9$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.21 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 45c | 172.31$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.3 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 75c | 160$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 50c | 140.7$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.69 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 78c | 140.47$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.5 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 63c | 140$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.98 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 41c | 129.99$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.99 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 33c | 123$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.41 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 21c | 119.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.6 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 44c | 108.69$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.35 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed Yes | 23c | 105.38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.58 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf875…814dbacked Yes | 47c | 100.37$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.15 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 15c | 98.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.63 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 40c | 97.55$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.41 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 22c | 93.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.06 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3774…b424backed No | 58c | 92.02$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.22 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 49c | 91.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.07 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 51c | 89.49$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.47 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 78c | 86.23$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 38c | 83.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.03 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 35c | 83.79$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.8 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 19c | 82.94$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.01 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf03b…34fdbacked No | 61c | 82.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb33…19d9backed Yes | 61c | 81.47$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.47 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 68c | 80.63$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.18 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 19c | 78.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.26 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 77.26$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.46 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…e06fbacked Yes | 48c | 75.3$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.3 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 24c | 69.62$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.74 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 77c | 64$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.39 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c7f…7620backed No | 19c | 63.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1e…862ebacked No | 53c | 61.05$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.36 | 87 | 27.6%24 W · 63 L | -10.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 39c | 61.03$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 41c | 60.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.48 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed No | 76c | 60$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…3208backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.3 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc67e…8929backed Yes | 28c | 59.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 49c | 57.26$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.28 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a5…9156backed Yes | 51c | 55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.95 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb56c…30f3backed Yes | 46c | 52.21$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.25 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 61c | 51.48$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.42 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3bf…04aabacked No | 58c | 51.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…229fbacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x634d…4d02backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 127 | 47.2%60 W · 67 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce7e…106bbacked Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31b1…11d2backed Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 105 | 53.3%56 W · 49 L | +15.0wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7477backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -34.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 60c | 49.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.77 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…0a3fbacked Yes | 40c | 47.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.49 | 161 | 48.4%78 W · 83 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 42c | 47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.26 | 159 | 48.4%77 W · 82 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 50c | 45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.3 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x589b…0381backed Yes | 49c | 42.27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.57 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 76c | 40.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.47 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91f4…d093backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 150 | 32%48 W · 102 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…0484backed Yes | 30c | 36.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.75 | 161 | 29.2%47 W · 114 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed No | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…ae8dbacked Yes | 78c | 35.13$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | +28.7wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked No | 79c | 33.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.87 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 50c | 33.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 72c | 33.01$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 77c | 31.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe43f…a889backed No | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 174 | 57.5%100 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 77c | 27.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 43c | 26.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xb36f…b8a8backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +30%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 60c | 24.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 58c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 79c | 24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 60c | 23.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed No | 52c | 23.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked No | 60c | 23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x254a…dacbbacked No | 78c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 169 | 50.9%86 W · 83 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 58c | 20.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 57c | 20.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…6d71backed Yes | 61c | 18.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed No | 80c | 17.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 168 | 59.5%100 W · 68 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac22…363ebacked Yes | 59c | 17.14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 142 | 43.7%62 W · 80 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 71c | 17.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 77c | 15.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on July 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on July 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.