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Commodities · resolved market

Will Gold (GC) settle at <$4,750 in March?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$26,878
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$29,787

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,878 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x33da…2c3ebacked No5c2,298$110 inLost-$109.981926.3%5 W · 14 L+3.9wins+0.20per pick6cpaid+567.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1fe3…305dbacked No1c1,732$24 inLost-$24.334214.3%6 W · 36 L-0.1wins0.00per pick15cpaid-40.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed No2c1,613$27 inLost-$26.882934.1%12 W · 281 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-30.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No16c747.63$121 inLost-$120.64163.4%26 W · 15 L+4.2wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+11.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No4c562.38$22 inLost-$21.971987.1%14 W · 184 L-10.4wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-69.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed Yes68c528.28$359 inWon+$169.5435534.9%124 W · 231 L+13.3wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f04…d82ebacked No12c483.16$56 inLost-$55.945429.6%16 W · 38 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+73%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed No13c444.67$56 inLost-$56.49119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick21cpaid-87.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0f86…404ebacked Yes51c387.06$198 inWon+$188.881471.4%10 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick64cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe228…1f4cbacked No29c343.71$100 inLost-$100437%3 W · 40 L-5.3wins-0.12per pick19cpaid-82.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc6b2…3caabacked No27c343$93 inLost-$92.763458.8%20 W · 14 L+3.4wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+47.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No18c304.33$54 inLost-$54.273565.7%23 W · 12 L+3.2wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+9.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2c90…8770backed No22c294.25$65 inLost-$65.4970%0 W · 7 L-3.1wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No11c247.07$28 inLost-$28.314669.6%32 W · 14 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No12c223.18$27 inLost-$27.357945.6%36 W · 43 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-19%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No32c159$51 inLost-$51.1521815.6%34 W · 184 L-37.8wins-0.17per pick33cpaid-68.9%equal weight33-0.16 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes24c145.55$35 inWon+$110.3530238.1%115 W · 187 L+11.1wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-13%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x35e4…5bbcbacked No44c141$62 inLost-$62.0460%0 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa540…0b43backed No20c130.93$26 inLost-$25.661,32224%317 W · 1,005 L-64.3wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-45.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1236…78bebacked Yes75c117.8$88 inWon+$29.75250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-33.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed No14c113.61$16 inLost-$15.781145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-30.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes29c109.47$32 inWon+$77.437921.5%17 W · 62 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-41.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7572…ab0fbacked Yes55c90.11$50 inWon+$40.113619.4%7 W · 29 L-4.1wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-66%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5eda…d453backed No19c80$15 inLost-$15.2520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-53.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99ba…6391backed No18c77.4$14 inLost-$14.019235.9%33 W · 59 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-23.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x40b1…d3c9backed No20c64$13 inLost-$12.921030%3 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-56.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No25c48.17$12 inLost-$121154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b43…33cebacked No66c44.99$30 inLost-$29.694973.5%36 W · 13 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick68cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x57f0…d33dbacked Yes64c29.98$19 inWon+$10.81526.7%4 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick16cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb2e…13cbbacked Yes80c20$16 inWon+$41100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.