Tennis · resolved market
Valencia: Nicolas Alvarez Varona vs Adolfo Vallejo
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda2e66f72ae6b4c495db76f09a2a9370b37faa5c3073238fdf7d072c524ed80d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Adolfo Vallejoof Nicolas Alvarez Varona, Adolfo Vallejo
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $76,444
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $86,473
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,444 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x710c…78eabacked Adolfo Vallejo | 79c | 7,997$6,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,677.04 | 1,040 | 58.2%605 W · 435 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Nicolas Alvarez Varona | 19c | 7,228$1,366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,366.23 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6715…5085backed Nicolas Alvarez Varona | 19c | 5,241$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc181…6e97backed Nicolas Alvarez Varona | 20c | 4,200$846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$845.72 | 158 | 45.6%72 W · 86 L | -12.6wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x42c9…9623backed Nicolas Alvarez Varona | 26c | 3,010$783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$782.82 | 4,703 | 49.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L | +166.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Nicolas Alvarez Varona | 14c | 3,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Adolfo Vallejo | 80c | 1,829$1,458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.13 | 4,533 | 67.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L | +306.6wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Nicolas Alvarez Varona | 27c | 1,691$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.9 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3354…5042backed Adolfo Vallejo | 76c | 1,585$1,211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.3 | 173 | 59.5%103 W · 70 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…6435backed Nicolas Alvarez Varona | 17c | 1,254$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.21 | 1,148 | 53%608 W · 540 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Nicolas Alvarez Varona | 17c | 1,100$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.96 | 1,658 | 49.9%828 W · 830 L | +7.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Nicolas Alvarez Varona | 17c | 1,000$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Nicolas Alvarez Varona | 16c | 900.39$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.74 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Nicolas Alvarez Varona | 24c | 873.66$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.51 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa42f…5f5abacked Nicolas Alvarez Varona | 19c | 858.03$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.22 | 1,010 | 39.2%396 W · 614 L | -23.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Nicolas Alvarez Varona | 21c | 855.96$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.29 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c0…22ebbacked Nicolas Alvarez Varona | 12c | 820.59$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.88 | 405 | 27.2%110 W · 295 L | -17.2wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x365f…706abacked Nicolas Alvarez Varona | 22c | 634.55$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.7 | 1,795 | 46.6%837 W · 958 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6832…831fbacked Nicolas Alvarez Varona | 21c | 608.26$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.74 | 292 | 41.8%122 W · 170 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Nicolas Alvarez Varona | 16c | 521.87$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.28 | 2,523 | 39.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea1…9805backed Adolfo Vallejo | 72c | 435.79$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Nicolas Alvarez Varona | 19c | 410.9$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.43 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa263…6cf0backed Nicolas Alvarez Varona | 20c | 390$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 175 | 38.3%67 W · 108 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa363…46c8backed Nicolas Alvarez Varona | 22c | 383.59$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.87 | 228 | 21.1%48 W · 180 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6e…542dbacked Adolfo Vallejo | 73c | 354.1$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.1 | 197 | 56.3%111 W · 86 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Nicolas Alvarez Varona | 28c | 353.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.98 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5192…df62backed Nicolas Alvarez Varona | 18c | 347.28$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.41 | 123 | 52.8%65 W · 58 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7820…5b79backed Nicolas Alvarez Varona | 17c | 292.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 205 | 15.6%32 W · 173 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…db27backed Nicolas Alvarez Varona | 14c | 285.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Nicolas Alvarez Varona | 17c | 262.92$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.69 | 4,185 | 44.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb5…a35dbacked Adolfo Vallejo | 72c | 207.96$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.96 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Nicolas Alvarez Varona | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Nicolas Alvarez Varona | 24c | 199.9$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.11 | 1,028 | 43.3%445 W · 583 L | -24.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Nicolas Alvarez Varona | 17c | 193.75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.94 | 2,462 | 38.5%948 W · 1,514 L | +93.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7e…70ecbacked Nicolas Alvarez Varona | 13c | 150$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1,001 | 45.4%454 W · 547 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Nicolas Alvarez Varona | 16c | 145.06$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 503 | 40%201 W · 302 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Nicolas Alvarez Varona | 15c | 140.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 809 | 38.8%314 W · 495 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8974…3e16backed Nicolas Alvarez Varona | 30c | 139.53$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.86 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -32%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Nicolas Alvarez Varona | 17c | 125.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 921 | 38.4%354 W · 567 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Nicolas Alvarez Varona | 17c | 122.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 2,229 | 45%1,002 W · 1,227 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60a3…3850backed Nicolas Alvarez Varona | 22c | 112.12$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 856 | 24.4%209 W · 647 L | -9.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f28…d173backed Adolfo Vallejo | 78c | 105$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.27 | 430 | 67%288 W · 142 L | +13.3wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Nicolas Alvarez Varona | 17c | 104.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 277 | 33.6%93 W · 184 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0a…f6bdbacked Adolfo Vallejo | 79c | 100.01$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.23 | 132 | 68.9%91 W · 41 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe720…2bb3backed Nicolas Alvarez Varona | 13c | 95.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 76 | 36.8%28 W · 48 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42d6…01ccbacked Adolfo Vallejo | 80c | 93.75$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 1,077 | 62.8%676 W · 401 L | -27.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Nicolas Alvarez Varona | 17c | 85.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 803 | 41.8%336 W · 467 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…d360backed Nicolas Alvarez Varona | 22c | 81.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 971 | 41.4%402 W · 569 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d63…8b8cbacked Nicolas Alvarez Varona | 19c | 81.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +4.1wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Nicolas Alvarez Varona | 24c | 79.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 1,354 | 43.9%595 W · 759 L | -62.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4093…5749backed Nicolas Alvarez Varona | 23c | 76.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 2,855 | 49.4%1,410 W · 1,445 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf83…915dbacked Nicolas Alvarez Varona | 29c | 65.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 645 | 37.2%240 W · 405 L | -7.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78a0…3a2fbacked Nicolas Alvarez Varona | 17c | 64.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 93 | 35.5%33 W · 60 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Nicolas Alvarez Varona | 31c | 62.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 1,174 | 51.9%609 W · 565 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c7…3b08backed Adolfo Vallejo | 79c | 61.71$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 509 | 58%295 W · 214 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Adolfo Vallejo | 80c | 49.36$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 350 | 32.3%113 W · 237 L | -9.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb83d…003cbacked Nicolas Alvarez Varona | 32c | 43.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed Nicolas Alvarez Varona | 28c | 36.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 190 | 51.1%97 W · 93 L | +14.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9081…8a6ebacked Adolfo Vallejo | 69c | 27.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 417 | 68.1%284 W · 133 L | -21.4wins | -0.05per pick | 73cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Adolfo Vallejo | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 208 | 57.2%119 W · 89 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecc7…517bbacked Adolfo Vallejo | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Valencia: Nicolas Alvarez Varona vs Adolfo Vallejothis page
- Set 1 Winner: Varona vs VallejoVallejo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.