Nottingham Forest vs. Manchester United: O/U 2.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda319bf3ee93fc14752808febd04b3bcd418685241e527bffd90d9443319430c

Rebuilt 14 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Nov 1, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $25,915
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $30,059

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,915 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Premier League
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x91fd…e4c8backed Over	57c	7,868$4,469 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,399.1	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.09per pick	58cpaid	+14%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Under	44c	7,146$3,132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,131.95	357	58%207 W · 150 L	+12.5wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	+1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	51c	4,337$2,206 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,206.24	6,117	45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L	-28.6wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xf763…414fbacked Over	56c	2,380$1,338 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,041.54	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	+0.5wins	+0.04per pick	37cpaid	+20.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf5d…7253backed Over	47c	2,119$996 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,123.07	30	30%9 W · 21 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	33cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Under	43c	1,919$821 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$820.75	370	36.2%134 W · 236 L	-18.1wins	-0.05per pick	41cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under	44c	1,894$827 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$827	492	54.9%270 W · 222 L	+5.4wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c86…6993backed Under	44c	1,125$495 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$495.03	400	46%184 W · 216 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed Over	57c	999.91$570 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$429.96	414	37.9%157 W · 257 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x561e…3e87backed Under	45c	713.33$320 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$320	50	28%14 W · 36 L	-3.3wins	-0.07per pick	35cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb113…8bc6backed Under	43c	666$286 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$286.38	215	48.8%105 W · 110 L	-5.8wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xefbd…8086backed Under	45c	499.99$225 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$225	175	44%77 W · 98 L	-6.0wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x68d6…cfb9backed Over	43c	467.44$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$267.44	21	47.6%10 W · 11 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-10%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd22…eaadbacked Over	56c	387.71$217 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$170.59	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.5wins	+0.10per pick	50cpaid	+20.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8889…a9d1backed Over	57c	350.88$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$150.88	153	47.7%73 W · 80 L	-3.3wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5159…d7aebacked Over	54c	278.5$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$128.11	53	45.3%24 W · 29 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Over	55c	270.77$149 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$121.84	218	53.2%116 W · 102 L	+5.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4948…08bdbacked Over	58c	242.16$140 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$102.16	23	39.1%9 W · 14 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc390…715cbacked Under	54c	222.22$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-16%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc3a3…d89bbacked Under	49c	217.47$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.56	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.6wins	-0.08per pick	45cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed Under	54c	212.03$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115.4	1,224	40%490 W · 734 L	-24.3wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xffab…a290backed Over	58c	210.31$122 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$88.33	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-1.4wins	-0.16per pick	49cpaid	-38.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcb7f…824bbacked Over	55c	181.8$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$81.81	19	63.2%12 W · 7 L	+2.0wins	+0.10per pick	53cpaid	+25.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8816…7082backed Over	56c	178.57$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$78.57	142	52.8%75 W · 67 L	-2.4wins	-0.02per pick	55cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b1d…6a8bbacked Over	56c	178.57$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$78.57	99	58.6%58 W · 41 L	+7.2wins	+0.07per pick	51cpaid	+14.6%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x82e3…2151backed Over	57c	176.03$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$76.03	25	56%14 W · 11 L	-1.1wins	-0.04per pick	60cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0521…cc4abacked Over	57c	175.44$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$75.44	61	50.8%31 W · 30 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+6.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x553b…f71cbacked Over	55c	150$83 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$67.5	54	42.6%23 W · 31 L	-3.4wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa8f5…1caabacked Under	43c	147.1$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.96	201	50.2%101 W · 100 L	-6.1wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa0c5…e717backed Under	55c	123.38$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.11	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93b4…2486backed Under	46c	114.07$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.47	58	53.4%31 W · 27 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa4f8…47aabacked Under	46c	108.7$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+0.8wins	+0.09per pick	46cpaid	+46.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf70…7d5fbacked Over	56c	100$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44	74	47.3%35 W · 39 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc774…b6e8backed Over	41c	100$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$59	31	29%9 W · 22 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	27cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39c0…681cbacked Over	52c	95.28$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.28	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x604a…30e9backed Over	56c	88.48$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.93	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.7wins	+0.18per pick	57cpaid	+34.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x06c2…184fbacked Under	45c	87$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.15	72	52.8%38 W · 34 L	+5.1wins	+0.07per pick	46cpaid	+14.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc2d4…8713backed Under	46c	87$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.02	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.46per pick	46cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3fd…dbc5backed Over	55c	87$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.15	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+1.6wins	+0.53per pick	47cpaid	+114%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa9f4…4dfbbacked Over	50c	80$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	+81.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9140…3ef9backed Over	56c	71.43$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.43	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.6wins	+0.16per pick	34cpaid	+76.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Over	57c	69$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.67	395	61.3%242 W · 153 L	-21.3wins	-0.05per pick	67cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x56c2…17bfbacked Over	54c	66.8$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.73	59	42.4%25 W · 34 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	+13.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf67b…4a7abacked Under	46c	64.63$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.73	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	-1.5wins	-0.11per pick	50cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd63e…0d52backed Over	57c	63.16$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.16	49	71.4%35 W · 14 L	+4.7wins	+0.10per pick	62cpaid	+15.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8dc8…b60ebacked Over	50c	60$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3919…3f50backed Under	43c	57.91$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.9	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.43per pick	43cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a49…f879backed Over	52c	57.69$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.69	12	75%9 W · 3 L	+2.7wins	+0.23per pick	52cpaid	+44.6%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2245…0534backed Over	55c	56.7$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.51	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.17per pick	50cpaid	+31.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc32e…203dbacked Over	56c	53.57$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.57	28	57.1%16 W · 12 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x569f…f8a4backed Over	40c	50.63$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.62	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.5wins	+0.13per pick	37cpaid	+30.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd480…799ebacked Over	56c	50$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22	80	45%36 W · 44 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5cfe…ed69backed Under	49c	50$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.5	53	39.6%21 W · 32 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbbe8…0fedbacked Under	56c	50$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.17	255	45.5%116 W · 139 L	-18.1wins	-0.07per pick	53cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7541…09d1backed Over	56c	44.77$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.77	41	51.2%21 W · 20 L	+2.4wins	+0.06per pick	45cpaid	+10.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e98…c16cbacked Over	57c	44$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19	18	55.6%10 W · 8 L	+0.9wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9bae…5c82backed Under	46c	43.5$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	169	46.2%78 W · 91 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4c2…f58ebacked Under	46c	43.48$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8cb2…996cbacked Over	59c	42.37$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.37	28	42.9%12 W · 16 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd3d…9220backed Under	50c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.50per pick	50cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x505c…1604backed Under	50c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	30cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0fb4…4b52backed Under	53c	37.74$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-1.6wins	-0.11per pick	47cpaid	-28.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4fa2…2da1backed Over	56c	36.43$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.03	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.06per pick	46cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x172d…6f3ebacked Over	55c	36.36$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.36	102	52.9%54 W · 48 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	55cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e49…63f2backed Under	43c	36$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.48	294	27.9%82 W · 212 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb58…4acebacked Over	56c	35.71$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.71	140	45%63 W · 77 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6ea…3235backed Over	56c	35.71$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.71	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23bd…2ea6backed Over	56c	35.71$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.71	20	25%5 W · 15 L	-4.1wins	-0.20per pick	45cpaid	-45.7%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xac25…147abacked Over	56c	35.71$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.71	21	52.4%11 W · 10 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed Over	57c	35.09$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.09	428	62.4%267 W · 161 L	-11.7wins	-0.03per pick	65cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0684…d593backed Over	58c	34.48$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.48	148	60.1%89 W · 59 L	+9.4wins	+0.06per pick	54cpaid	+12.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3e2d…fb60backed Over	58c	34.48$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.48	143	51%73 W · 70 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc47e…8ae4backed Under	46c	34.11$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.69	19	68.4%13 W · 6 L	+2.1wins	+0.11per pick	58cpaid	+19.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x85a4…7412backed Over	57c	29.82$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.82	59	54.2%32 W · 27 L	+3.9wins	+0.07per pick	48cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6894…59d8backed Over	56c	29.42$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.94	65	64.6%42 W · 23 L	+2.1wins	+0.03per pick	61cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1e8…2299backed Over	56c	26.79$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.79	6	83.3%5 W · 1 L	+1.4wins	+0.23per pick	60cpaid	+37.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x855b…8dd0backed Over	56c	26.79$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.79	24	41.7%10 W · 14 L	-3.9wins	-0.16per pick	58cpaid	-25.3%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x535d…6ff7backed Over	56c	26.79$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.79	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+1.3wins	+0.14per pick	41cpaid	+43.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcbcb…ede9backed Under	45c	25$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.25	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.45per pick	45cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x123c…e814backed Over	58c	22.41$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.41	10	60%6 W · 4 L	+1.1wins	+0.11per pick	49cpaid	+14.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x237c…5e41backed Over	56c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.8	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.44per pick	56cpaid	+78.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3501…0591backed Over	55c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9	13	69.2%9 W · 4 L	+0.7wins	+0.05per pick	64cpaid	+11.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4dd9…2b18backed Over	56c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.8	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb60f…1ab0backed Over	55c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3991…b6c7backed Over	54c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.2	91	52.7%48 W · 43 L	+5.3wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+14.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x02bc…7547backed Under	69c	15$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.35	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.1wins	-0.57per pick	57cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Nottingham Forest vs. Manchester United: O/U 2.5this page
Nottingham Forest vs. Manchester United: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
Spread: Manchester United (-0.5)Nottingham Forest won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Nottingham Forest vs. Manchester United: O/U 2.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event