Premier League · resolved market
Spread: Manchester United (-0.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2ce33842154e235eb03e30878ba1716a49fd5d3febc615d8200546262e12f333
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nottingham Forestof Manchester United, Nottingham Forest
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,833
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,774
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,833 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Manchester United | 45c | 7,145$3,216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,216.34 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Nottingham Forest | 73c | 6,210$4,515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,694.87 | 357 | 58%207 W · 150 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7087…c61fbacked Nottingham Forest | 55c | 6,000$3,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,700 | 101 | 48.5%49 W · 52 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8452…cc80backed Nottingham Forest | 35c | 3,072$1,075 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,996.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd146…9bf0backed Nottingham Forest | 52c | 3,000$1,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,439.98 | 459 | 36.2%166 W · 293 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdf…ec4bbacked Manchester United | 47c | 2,377$1,126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,125.98 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4667…cab0backed Manchester United | 48c | 2,083$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Nottingham Forest | 53c | 2,077$1,101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$976.35 | 218 | 53.2%116 W · 102 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe930…b44dbacked Manchester United | 15c | 2,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -21%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa05…6302backed Nottingham Forest | 54c | 1,111$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…2865backed Manchester United | 47c | 1,111$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb22…ce57backed Manchester United | 47c | 404.26$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b67…c178backed Manchester United | 47c | 319.87$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.34 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +85%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f40…3fa4backed Manchester United | 49c | 306.12$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0a…bf81backed Manchester United | 47c | 298.36$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e1…d431backed Nottingham Forest | 53c | 250$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.5 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Manchester United | 46c | 250$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 186 | 46.8%87 W · 99 L | +11.2wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc343…76cbbacked Manchester United | 47c | 213$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.11 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x823d…8091backed Manchester United | 47c | 211.64$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.47 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9140…3ef9backed Manchester United | 48c | 210.13$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +76.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa9a…a377backed Manchester United | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x553b…f71cbacked Manchester United | 46c | 150$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f4…4dfbbacked Manchester United | 66c | 150$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +81.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b41…2c02backed Manchester United | 47c | 144.62$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.97 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +3.2wins | +0.23per pick | 35cpaid | +112.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x31bf…a612backed Manchester United | 48c | 113.79$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe838…3832backed Manchester United | 45c | 110$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b7…52bebacked Manchester United | 45c | 110$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4731…cba8backed Manchester United | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0cab…3280backed Manchester United | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +448.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1316…c716backed Manchester United | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Nottingham Forest | 52c | 86.12$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.95 | 201 | 50.2%101 W · 100 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa228…ec0ebacked Manchester United | 47c | 84.76$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc774…b6e8backed Manchester United | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Manchester United | 43c | 66.86$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 370 | 36.2%134 W · 236 L | -18.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x375e…6c94backed Nottingham Forest | 53c | 55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +3.1wins | +0.31per pick | 59cpaid | +69.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6e…ccc7backed Nottingham Forest | 53c | 55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6493…fdd0backed Manchester United | 47c | 45.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x571e…10e5backed Manchester United | 47c | 43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x390c…75b5backed Manchester United | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -71%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbc…9591backed Manchester United | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 46cpaid | +130.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d26…10d3backed Manchester United | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…49aabacked Manchester United | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85a0…c5f2backed Nottingham Forest | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x757d…a7ccbacked Nottingham Forest | 50c | 37.03$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.36per pick | 48cpaid | +291.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea8…25f9backed Nottingham Forest | 55c | 32.91$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.91 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81c1…7b21backed Manchester United | 47c | 32.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32f6…9538backed Manchester United | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -5.8wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde91…f20abacked Manchester United | 44c | 30.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x658d…859fbacked Manchester United | 48c | 28.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7083…9165backed Manchester United | 49c | 24.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Manchester United (-0.5)this page
- Nottingham Forest vs. Manchester United: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Nottingham Forest vs. Manchester United: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.