Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on August 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda4174957d26bbc06904a5a1ab040590ab223611e581bb77043ea1fac8f8bca8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,386
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,464
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,386 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 22c | 300.32$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.26 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 28c | 242.47$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.69 | 3,939 | 23.2%913 W · 3,026 L | +125.2wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32d1…e5c8backed Yes | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 78 | 9%7 W · 71 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes | 24c | 170.82$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 285 | 41.1%117 W · 168 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b98…8595backed Yes | 7c | 169.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 316 | 12.7%40 W · 276 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3d0…031abacked Yes | 30c | 161.68$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.45 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 77c | 156.3$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.21 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 79c | 150.23$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.37 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 28c | 145.06$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.72 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 69c | 144.29$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.01 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb530…3c03backed Yes | 23c | 107.79$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 79 | 13.9%11 W · 68 L | -7.4wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 67c | 107$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.31 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18ec…f311backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bcd…57a4backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.42per pick | 33cpaid | +163.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 71c | 89.32$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.97 | 795 | 27.9%222 W · 573 L | -16.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2edc…a207backed Yes | 28c | 86.95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.41 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 76c | 80$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.89 | 1,671 | 37.9%633 W · 1,038 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c95…52dbbacked No | 72c | 78.75$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.06 | 189 | 47.6%90 W · 99 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 75c | 77.23$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.43 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 22c | 69.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca4…6aa2backed Yes | 31c | 61.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 142 | 40.1%57 W · 85 L | -11.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 588 | 50.9%299 W · 289 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 73c | 54.6$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.81 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 78c | 53.94$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 79c | 49.32$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e7…c727backed Yes | 24c | 48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 60 | 60%36 W · 24 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbf…a7bebacked No | 77c | 37$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 70cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 32.03$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 77c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 241 | 58.5%141 W · 100 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xace2…2089backed No | 78c | 26.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 73c | 23.75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf09f…1ca0backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 76c | 17.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.11 | 886 | 60.7%538 W · 348 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on August 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on August 28?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.