Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on August 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c97c2d8411d459bcd78e19e571abdce6ce5b7b4db44aaad3da59679b1dd478d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,614
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,178
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,614 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 31c | 816.93$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.11 | 795 | 27.9%222 W · 573 L | -16.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18ec…f311backed No | 28c | 400$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.73 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 76c | 393.09$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.09 | 214 | 60.3%129 W · 85 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96f3…c324backed No | 41c | 261.23$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.05 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 66c | 227.27$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.27 | 1,156 | 31.1%359 W · 797 L | -38.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 24c | 208.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.96 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed Yes | 68c | 199.99$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 253 | 75.9%192 W · 61 L | +25.4wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 12c | 198.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 63c | 175.41$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.67 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 20c | 166.6$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.81 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 65c | 158.4$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.44 | 265 | 56.2%149 W · 116 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 64c | 133$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.01 | 637 | 33.4%213 W · 424 L | +24.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 77c | 125.2$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.62 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c95…52dbbacked No | 30c | 117.14$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.34 | 189 | 47.6%90 W · 99 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 69c | 109.47$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.48 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed No | 36c | 103$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.08 | 290 | 43.8%127 W · 163 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 802 | 47.3%379 W · 423 L | -29.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 32c | 99.34$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.34 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked No | 23c | 79.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 243 | 49.4%120 W · 123 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d42…5bf3backed Yes | 65c | 79.2$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.72 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 65c | 75.76$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 256 | 53.9%138 W · 118 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2edc…a207backed Yes | 74c | 63.54$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.46 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 23c | 60.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5059…7bddbacked Yes | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 25c | 43.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Yes | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 220 | 70.9%156 W · 64 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53fb…e92abacked Yes | 59c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 170 | 58.8%100 W · 70 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes | 71c | 39.67$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 523 | 47.6%249 W · 274 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d92…c550backed Yes | 77c | 35.02$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e7…c727backed No | 35c | 34.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 60 | 60%36 W · 24 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca4…6aa2backed No | 35c | 33.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 142 | 40.1%57 W · 85 L | -11.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa485…7b85backed Yes | 76c | 33.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -3.9wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f93…f75cbacked Yes | 66c | 30.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 2,691 | 47.5%1,278 W · 1,413 L | +48.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked Yes | 65c | 26.19$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 68c | 23.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 3,649 | 53.2%1,943 W · 1,706 L | +83.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e60…735cbacked Yes | 65c | 22.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1585…5839backed Yes | 69c | 21.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 77c | 21.27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.89 | 439 | 47.6%209 W · 230 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed No | 53c | 20.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 795 | 36.6%291 W · 504 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 75c | 17.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 66c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 249 | 31.7%79 W · 170 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on August 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on August 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.