Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will FC Porto win on 2025-12-15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda4778c578cf0407e2376b4a86a3a6f11b7b53f8d368947e6bf32b0c0290d9f0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $187,085
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $219,840
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $187,085 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked No | 16c | 25,942$4,151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,150.8 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc16b…8404backed No | 16c | 20,000$3,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,200 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 10c | 15,333$1,480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,479.98 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked No | 15c | 15,000$2,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,249.97 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed No | 5c | 7,338$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.75 | 119 | 49.6%59 W · 60 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb875…68a8backed No | 15c | 7,172$1,076 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,075.8 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 9c | 4,339$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.54 | 834 | 40.8%340 W · 494 L | -35.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85e8…474abacked No | 15c | 3,378$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.7 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35a6…cb8fbacked No | 17c | 2,004$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 19c | 1,760$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.45 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked No | 15c | 1,500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 473 | 25.4%120 W · 353 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed No | 10c | 1,352$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.01 | 192 | 41.7%80 W · 112 L | -12.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45e1…c872backed No | 15c | 1,319$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.82 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed No | 15c | 1,300$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 111 | 36.9%41 W · 70 L | -15.2wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 14c | 1,249$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.71 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +26%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85e2…0980backed Yes | 70c | 1,141$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.4 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +44%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 35c | 1,065$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.97 | 2,179 | 48%1,046 W · 1,133 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked No | 15c | 1,001$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.12 | 294 | 25.9%76 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 16c | 1,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 670 | 50.6%339 W · 331 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 17c | 994.95$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.74 | 1,401 | 29.2%409 W · 992 L | -32.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa146…8340backed No | 15c | 969.86$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…0a8dbacked No | 16c | 941.68$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.67 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…0dd9backed No | 17c | 600.11$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.13 | 98 | 11.2%11 W · 87 L | -5.6wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c61…6fe2backed No | 8c | 530.37$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0a…6b9fbacked No | 7c | 521.85$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae9…74acbacked No | 8c | 438.69$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.09 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 13c | 375.12$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.18 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 16c | 324.96$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.86 | 217 | 55.3%120 W · 97 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 6c | 319$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 133 | 30.1%40 W · 93 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7256…30c9backed No | 16c | 311.93$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.8 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c16…09cbbacked No | 16c | 300$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…e793backed No | 10c | 254.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.47 | 142 | 62.7%89 W · 53 L | +15.1wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd549…296dbacked No | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf0…1915backed No | 8c | 247.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b5…7ba6backed Yes | 69c | 244.93$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.93 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 16c | 239.95$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.39 | 490 | 46.9%230 W · 260 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 79c | 218.94$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.74 | 853 | 40.1%342 W · 511 L | -12.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee14…8055backed No | 19c | 217.04$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.32 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked No | 15c | 199.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 210 | 44.8%94 W · 116 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed No | 16c | 178.96$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.64 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedc…8bcabacked Yes | 69c | 163.43$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.66 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1758…5d73backed Yes | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfca6…9553backed No | 16c | 153.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked No | 17c | 149.27$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.06 | 570 | 19.8%113 W · 457 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd502…4d4cbacked No | 17c | 140.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed No | 16c | 114.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e79…089bbacked No | 35c | 107.09$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.48 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed No | 15c | 99.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 134 | 26.1%35 W · 99 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed No | 12c | 92.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +8.4wins | +0.23per pick | 50cpaid | +73.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4a05…0329backed No | 16c | 76.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbe1…845fbacked Yes | 65c | 75$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +70.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf292…b60cbacked No | 16c | 68.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…e834backed No | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…3485backed Yes | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…1a57backed Yes | 80c | 62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 19 | 89.5%17 W · 2 L | +3.6wins | +0.19per pick | 70cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6644…e9fabacked Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 144 | 35.4%51 W · 93 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Porto win on 2025-12-15?this page
- Will CF Estrela da Amadora win on 2025-12-15?No won
- Will FC Porto vs. CF Estrela da Amadora end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.