NBA · resolved market
Spread: Bucks (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda67ec723abc470a87990dbfb58ce84165a0cbcffdad7187829066d4594d0333
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hornetsof Bucks, Hornets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,710
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,728
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,710 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Hornets | 50c | 8,388$4,164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,224.02 | 1,204 | 55.3%666 W · 538 L | +52.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf0…251cbacked Bucks | 50c | 8,322$4,161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,161 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed Hornets | 50c | 5,228$2,614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,614.03 | 193 | 51.3%99 W · 94 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked Hornets | 50c | 3,456$1,728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,728 | 453 | 48.1%218 W · 235 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…3378backed Bucks | 46c | 2,390$1,108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,107.86 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Bucks | 50c | 2,160$1,087 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,087.04 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Bucks | 50c | 2,021$1,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,009.99 | 857 | 42.6%365 W · 492 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab6…078ebacked Bucks | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf327…34dbbacked Bucks | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Bucks | 50c | 1,753$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$879.8 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Hornets | 51c | 1,601$817 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$784.49 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Bucks | 49c | 1,600$784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$784 | 339 | 45.1%153 W · 186 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Hornets | 50c | 1,135$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567.5 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Hornets | 50c | 1,135$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567.5 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Hornets | 50c | 1,001$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.5 | 517 | 53.8%278 W · 239 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Bucks | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e99…dea0backed Bucks | 50c | 756$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b28…7b38backed Hornets | 50c | 756$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf706…e173backed Hornets | 50c | 660$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +80.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2eaf…f323backed Bucks | 50c | 660$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -55%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc922…2618backed Hornets | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 267 | 55.8%149 W · 118 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5388…4d5abacked Bucks | 49c | 600$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -5.6wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x45d6…36cbbacked Bucks | 51c | 490.2$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 245 | 33.9%83 W · 162 L | -19.1wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Bucks | 43c | 459.78$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.77 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91f7…d613backed Bucks | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 88 | 60.2%53 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9408…ae72backed Bucks | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ddf…b93abacked Hornets | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Hornets | 60c | 384.76$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.51 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc318…447abacked Bucks | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Hornets | 59c | 299$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.35 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Bucks | 50c | 285$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.5 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Bucks | 38c | 278.5$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.83 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Bucks | 48c | 234$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb65e…431abacked Bucks | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Hornets | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x960c…3705backed Hornets | 49c | 114.29$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2630…e941backed Bucks | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 428 | 45.1%193 W · 235 L | -15.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2176…9b67backed Bucks | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Bucks | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 373 | 57.4%214 W · 159 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Hornets | 51c | 88.24$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.24 | 824 | 40.4%333 W · 491 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x357b…7b85backed Bucks | 52c | 71.15$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2149…3a74backed Hornets | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Hornets | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x426f…e76bbacked Bucks | 50c | 56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 176 | 44.9%79 W · 97 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Bucks | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 801 | 46.4%372 W · 429 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a3…0c69backed Bucks | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 158 | 38.6%61 W · 97 L | -11.1wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe358…24bebacked Hornets | 63c | 44.44$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.44 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Hornets | 51c | 43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.07 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Bucks | 41c | 41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd36…0f01backed Bucks | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…87dabacked Bucks | 53c | 32.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29b4…0a0fbacked Bucks | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9bae…5c82backed Bucks | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35a6…cb8fbacked Bucks | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd33…81d1backed Bucks | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Bucks (-5.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Bucks (-3.5)Hornets won
- Bucks vs. HornetsHornets won
- Bucks vs. Hornets: 1H MoneylineHornets won
- Bucks vs. Hornets: 1H O/U 117.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Hornets: 1H O/U 118.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Hornets: 1H O/U 119.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Hornets: O/U 228.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Hornets: O/U 229.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Hornets: O/U 231.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Hornets: O/U 232.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Hornets: O/U 233.5Under won
- Spread: Bucks (-2.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Bucks (-4.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Bucks (-6.5)Hornets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.