NBA · resolved market
Bucks vs. Hornets: O/U 232.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca5450ddef0b529aba8050cf01c94914be55f9029c457cea9d7c74df9bc5c28b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,051
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,115
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,051 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Under | 51c | 15,681$8,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,620.77 | 1,204 | 55.3%666 W · 538 L | +52.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Under | 51c | 5,120$2,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,520 | 477 | 48.8%233 W · 244 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 49c | 4,409$2,154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,153.9 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Over | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 362 | 48.9%177 W · 185 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6043…84afbacked Over | 50c | 3,672$1,836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,836.06 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d16…85f3backed Over | 46c | 2,377$1,098 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,098.5 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Under | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$979.78 | 180 | 47.8%86 W · 94 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 49c | 1,439$708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$707.7 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 49c | 1,200$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Under | 53c | 1,126$597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.25 | 339 | 45.1%153 W · 186 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Over | 49c | 999.55$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.78 | 524 | 60.1%315 W · 209 L | +35.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 49c | 951.48$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.13 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafd0…56c1backed Under | 53c | 950$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03db…eae7backed Over | 47c | 950$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 45c | 913.87$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.02 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 51c | 888$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.88 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46bd…37e8backed Over | 48c | 812.5$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 168 | 37.5%63 W · 105 L | -20.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -25%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe4…ba0ebacked Over | 48c | 780$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1b…1265backed Under | 52c | 780$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Under | 52c | 727.1$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.01 | 668 | 53.4%357 W · 311 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1209…fa75backed Over | 48c | 672.92$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed Under | 51c | 535$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.15 | 193 | 51.3%99 W · 94 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5388…4d5abacked Over | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -5.6wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bd…0588backed Over | 51c | 401.96$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Over | 48c | 400$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Over | 49c | 368$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.08 | 1,028 | 48.5%499 W · 529 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Over | 48c | 365$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.2 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde6f…fc91backed Over | 47c | 321.4$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.93 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 54c | 299.99$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 726 | 47.7%346 W · 380 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f21…fa6dbacked Under | 53c | 283.02$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.02 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f62…ac75backed Over | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc1…ffeebacked Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 369 | 43.4%160 W · 209 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Over | 49c | 184$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.54 | 331 | 47.4%157 W · 174 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Over | 49c | 121$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.88 | 623 | 49.6%309 W · 314 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Over | 49c | 121$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.88 | 312 | 50.3%157 W · 155 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed Over | 49c | 121$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.88 | 479 | 48%230 W · 249 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Over | 49c | 121$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.88 | 717 | 47.6%341 W · 376 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over | 49c | 121$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.88 | 876 | 47.5%416 W · 460 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1321…2286backed Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2381…ea41backed Over | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +5.0wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3289…4538backed Over | 52c | 91.67$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.67 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04a1…d6e6backed Over | 39c | 83.83$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.69 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Over | 49c | 72$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.04 | 340 | 53.8%183 W · 157 L | +16.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd079…8db3backed Over | 49c | 72$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.04 | 317 | 54.6%173 W · 144 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Over | 49c | 72$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.04 | 342 | 54.1%185 W · 157 L | +16.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe398…ee2ebacked Over | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd33…81d1backed Over | 43c | 61.67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4109…7e24backed Over | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 452 | 51.1%231 W · 221 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2025…db59backed Over | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 366 | 51.4%188 W · 178 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…810abacked Over | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 260 | 40%104 W · 156 L | -7.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…a540backed Over | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 315 | 51.1%161 W · 154 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 597 | 43.6%260 W · 337 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf275…7050backed Under | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbba2…eaa6backed Over | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 163 | 57.1%93 W · 70 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x795f…1871backed Under | 60c | 41.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50bb…9aa6backed Under | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 119 | 51.3%61 W · 58 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a3…8248backed Under | 53c | 34.81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 80 | 52.5%42 W · 38 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e9…8f51backed Under | 60c | 33.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacb2…fb9dbacked Under | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Over | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 358 | 51.7%185 W · 173 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2365…af90backed Over | 49c | 28.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Under | 54c | 23.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 141 | 39%55 W · 86 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57eb…3a67backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d48…48e0backed Under | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 166 | 58.4%97 W · 69 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bucks vs. Hornets: O/U 232.5this page
- 1H Spread: Bucks (-3.5)Hornets won
- Bucks vs. HornetsHornets won
- Bucks vs. Hornets: 1H MoneylineHornets won
- Bucks vs. Hornets: 1H O/U 117.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Hornets: 1H O/U 118.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Hornets: 1H O/U 119.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Hornets: O/U 228.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Hornets: O/U 229.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Hornets: O/U 231.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Hornets: O/U 233.5Under won
- Spread: Bucks (-2.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Bucks (-4.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Bucks (-5.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Bucks (-6.5)Hornets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.