NBA · resolved market
Spread: Bucks (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x824afabed6bbe60009fdf3e5f8e50ad855dd0d1ecaf4e7f3dcb1e3072957c9cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hornetsof Bucks, Hornets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,660
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,575
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,660 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4335…fc2fbacked Hornets | 59c | 25,080$14,796 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,283.6 | 173 | 54.3%94 W · 79 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Bucks | 41c | 21,516$8,924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,923.89 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Bucks | 41c | 3,423$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,399.51 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e58…f73bbacked Hornets | 51c | 1,200$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Hornets | 53c | 1,139$609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.78 | 361 | 48.5%175 W · 186 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd36…a8acbacked Hornets | 45c | 1,074$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590.76 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Hornets | 59c | 1,000$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Hornets | 59c | 999.99$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.99 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Hornets | 43c | 983.54$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.97 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x357b…0b65backed Bucks | 53c | 943.4$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 271 | 58.3%158 W · 113 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcce0…9fbcbacked Bucks | 57c | 877.19$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed Bucks | 42c | 742.57$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.88 | 241 | 51.9%125 W · 116 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Bucks | 41c | 455.98$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.95 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Bucks | 56c | 400$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224 | 390 | 51.5%201 W · 189 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc1…ffeebacked Bucks | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 369 | 43.4%160 W · 209 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb29…ea29backed Bucks | 42c | 300.16$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.74 | 139 | 43.2%60 W · 79 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Hornets | 58c | 231.79$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.16 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…3c72backed Hornets | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 266 | 51.1%136 W · 130 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea34…0a92backed Hornets | 50c | 188$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8bd…463dbacked Bucks | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 382 | 61.5%235 W · 147 L | +30.8wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8835…7d7ebacked Bucks | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Bucks | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x646c…3210backed Bucks | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -7.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Hornets | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 477 | 51.8%247 W · 230 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a10…543cbacked Hornets | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04a1…d6e6backed Bucks | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dd…490bbacked Bucks | 56c | 89.61$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 126 | 54.8%69 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b8…68a5backed Bucks | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ca…af59backed Bucks | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Hornets | 58c | 72$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.11 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Hornets | 49c | 68$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.68 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Bucks | 41c | 62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd28…2aefbacked Bucks | 29c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 314 | 30.3%95 W · 219 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cba…c616backed Hornets | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Hornets | 58c | 49.91$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.84 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77ff…4ddebacked Bucks | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Bucks | 57c | 48.25$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 358 | 51.7%185 W · 173 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8658…41c6backed Bucks | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b2…3886backed Bucks | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x555e…6bb8backed Bucks | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x570b…1263backed Bucks | 57c | 31.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x254f…2fb8backed Bucks | 57c | 31.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9105…1ae2backed Bucks | 57c | 29.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…0f55backed Bucks | 57c | 29.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7028…8512backed Bucks | 57c | 28.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82be…627bbacked Bucks | 57c | 27.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe74e…90b6backed Bucks | 57c | 27.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf69b…617fbacked Bucks | 57c | 27.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67bc…4d94backed Bucks | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 210 | 51.4%108 W · 102 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9b…ae51backed Bucks | 57c | 26.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2d…356bbacked Bucks | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.35per pick | 47cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…8ecebacked Bucks | 54c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 88 | 75%66 W · 22 L | +12.8wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Bucks (-4.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Bucks (-3.5)Hornets won
- Bucks vs. HornetsHornets won
- Bucks vs. Hornets: 1H MoneylineHornets won
- Bucks vs. Hornets: 1H O/U 117.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Hornets: 1H O/U 118.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Hornets: 1H O/U 119.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Hornets: O/U 228.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Hornets: O/U 229.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Hornets: O/U 231.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Hornets: O/U 232.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Hornets: O/U 233.5Under won
- Spread: Bucks (-2.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Bucks (-5.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Bucks (-6.5)Hornets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.