Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs O'Connell (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda6cf61ba73472f2c3da364d2e6a5a853b30ad59f46b05d8c303dd5727a09973
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Fritzof Fritz, O'Connell
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,621
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,005
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,621 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3308…f04bbacked O'Connell | 36c | 1,167$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.47 | 631 | 44.1%278 W · 353 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6797…e0e5backed Fritz | 73c | 429.66$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.06 | 262 | 63%165 W · 97 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8db…ccfbbacked Fritz | 79c | 345.1$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.47 | 187 | 56.1%105 W · 82 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Fritz | 65c | 326.55$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.81 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Fritz | 69c | 321.49$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.77 | 2,375 | 51.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L | +8.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed O'Connell | 31c | 319.28$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.89 | 285 | 43.5%124 W · 161 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ac…7f76backed Fritz | 71c | 300$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc408…7f32backed Fritz | 61c | 300$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1d…2fb6backed O'Connell | 29c | 240$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.6 | 1,556 | 42.4%660 W · 896 L | +20.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed O'Connell | 21c | 238.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,601 | 46.5%1,209 W · 1,392 L | +18.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Fritz | 63c | 205.41$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked O'Connell | 27c | 197.85$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.47 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed O'Connell | 30c | 152.14$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.64 | 270 | 47.8%129 W · 141 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa521…d609backed Fritz | 70c | 150$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +4.8wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed O'Connell | 21c | 107$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 1,837 | 59.2%1,088 W · 749 L | +8.4wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0599…3c6abacked Fritz | 70c | 49.68$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 583 | 59.2%345 W · 238 L | -8.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed O'Connell | 30c | 45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 695 | 45.8%318 W · 377 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06b…10fabacked Fritz | 71c | 42.42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 46 | 60.9%28 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed O'Connell | 28c | 39.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2b1…1f32backed Fritz | 70c | 28.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 64cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs O'Connell (+1.5)this page
- Cincinnati Open: Taylor Fritz vs Christopher O'ConnellTaylor Fritz won
- Fritz vs. O'Connell: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Fritz vs. O'Connell: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Set 1 Winner: Fritz vs O'ConnellFritz won
- Set 2 Winner: Fritz vs O'ConnellFritz won
- Taylor Fritz vs. Christopher O'Connell: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.