Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: PlayTime (-1.5) vs Yakult Brothers (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda6ec243ddb8651e0ca1f1382e11c4f41f0097d2c7e6fea67654f830b78a0017
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- PlayTimeof PlayTime, Yakult Brothers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,053
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,780
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,053 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7645…3117backed Yakult Brothers | 53c | 3,000$1,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,590 | 155 | 44.5%69 W · 86 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57b2…9da2backed PlayTime | 47c | 2,996$1,408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,587.87 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb0…57e0backed Yakult Brothers | 55c | 1,040$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.6 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc581…0f24backed PlayTime | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yakult Brothers | 48c | 614.75$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.08 | 100 | 50%50 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41a5…75bbbacked PlayTime | 52c | 614.75$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.08 | 614 | 49.5%304 W · 310 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed PlayTime | 47c | 611.87$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.97 | 503 | 53.9%271 W · 232 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce08…510bbacked Yakult Brothers | 53c | 500$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 359 | 51.3%184 W · 175 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed Yakult Brothers | 55c | 214.6$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.03 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d3…42e4backed Yakult Brothers | 56c | 197.37$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f8…e0b1backed Yakult Brothers | 51c | 196$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 263 | 43%113 W · 150 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed PlayTime | 46c | 161.89$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.57 | 118 | 47.5%56 W · 62 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb07…e2ccbacked PlayTime | 45c | 114.17$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.19 | 100 | 40%40 W · 60 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7e…9dc6backed PlayTime | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 140 | 58.6%82 W · 58 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc96…2791backed Yakult Brothers | 37c | 99.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 68 | 48.5%33 W · 35 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed PlayTime | 44c | 76$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.56 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc69b…2076backed PlayTime | 63c | 75.23$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.84 | 188 | 44.7%84 W · 104 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…33dabacked Yakult Brothers | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc3e…776bbacked PlayTime | 46c | 65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 192 | 51.6%99 W · 93 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd799…326cbacked Yakult Brothers | 51c | 65$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.15 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -5.0wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked PlayTime | 43c | 62.37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.55 | 264 | 45.1%119 W · 145 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed PlayTime | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 250 | 47.6%119 W · 131 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c8…97b4backed PlayTime | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 154 | 65.6%101 W · 53 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb171…7d2bbacked Yakult Brothers | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc1…3f1cbacked Yakult Brothers | 56c | 44.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed PlayTime | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed PlayTime | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fd…10ccbacked PlayTime | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 86 | 51.2%44 W · 42 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4281…1a5abacked PlayTime | 45c | 23.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed1…fd2abacked PlayTime | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 227 | 38.3%87 W · 140 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: PlayTime (-1.5) vs Yakult Brothers (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: PlayTime vs Yakult Brothers (BO5) - Games of the Future PlayoffsPlayTime won
- Dota 2: PlayTime vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 WinnerPlayTime won
- Dota 2: PlayTime vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 WinnerPlayTime won
- Dota 2: PlayTime vs Yakult Brothers - Game 3 WinnerPlayTime won
- Game 1: Any Player Rampage?No won
- Game 2: Any Player Rampage?No won
- Game Handicap: PlayTime (-2.5) vs Yakult Brothers (+2.5)PlayTime won
- Games Total: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.