South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CD Riestra vs. CA Independiente end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda6f46967e02dae162981fc5f03c50a2a12b0a9c5f2167255389225cb511071a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,726
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,791
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,726 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdf07…e601backed Yes | 10c | 8,219$802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$801.56 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 73c | 7,411$5,407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,003.22 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe757…c161backed Yes | 25c | 6,070$1,524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,523.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +102.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 79c | 5,991$4,718 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,272.95 | 8,175 | 48.7%3,980 W · 4,195 L | +27.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8504…88dcbacked Yes | 29c | 3,273$958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$957.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 75c | 2,389$1,792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$597.26 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae4…0ddebacked Yes | 27c | 1,572$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8bd…478fbacked Yes | 30c | 916.49$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.95 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8561…337bbacked Yes | 10c | 592.17$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.17 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 76c | 532.71$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.04 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 71c | 448.38$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.04 | 3,807 | 38.4%1,463 W · 2,344 L | -29.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d87…abeabacked Yes | 22c | 436.26$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.38 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa823…3327backed Yes | 29c | 289.99$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.1 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57bf…0169backed Yes | 32c | 225.57$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.94 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 68c | 195.18$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.46 | 2,598 | 39.3%1,022 W · 1,576 L | -26.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 72c | 187.49$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.38 | 140 | 22.1%31 W · 109 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…e57dbacked Yes | 23c | 165.88$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.15 | 259 | 25.1%65 W · 194 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56e0…1a3bbacked Yes | 30c | 153.28$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.98 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x78ad…5ff2backed Yes | 32c | 149.88$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed No | 71c | 137.56$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.89 | 507 | 46.7%237 W · 270 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 32c | 118.7$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.98 | 1,557 | 45.1%702 W · 855 L | +19.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dca…ce96backed Yes | 22c | 108.32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1105…09d0backed No | 67c | 107.28$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 111 | 56.8%63 W · 48 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3092…c9a8backed No | 74c | 105.96$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.03 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -5.5wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 21c | 102.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 716 | 19.7%141 W · 575 L | -49.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x68fc…c7eabacked Yes | 30c | 98.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…0dbdbacked Yes | 14c | 85.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1e…6b94backed Yes | 35c | 82.51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.83 | 113 | 39.8%45 W · 68 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a11…ef8ebacked No | 67c | 71.5$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.59 | 106 | 60.4%64 W · 42 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked No | 74c | 68.16$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.89 | 258 | 64.3%166 W · 92 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked No | 76c | 55.18$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 1,502 | 45.9%690 W · 812 L | -18.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 65c | 54.33$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.02 | 99 | 53.5%53 W · 46 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 65c | 54.31$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.01 | 1,257 | 53.6%674 W · 583 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3b…8568backed No | 75c | 50.01$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe43…8f09backed No | 66c | 48.26$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.41 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe93f…62ffbacked Yes | 30c | 47.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 34c | 44.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 3,446 | 51.4%1,771 W · 1,675 L | +21.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed No | 74c | 39.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x756c…651bbacked Yes | 32c | 35.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x646d…afb2backed No | 71c | 32.74$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1,465 | 56.8%832 W · 633 L | +55.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6432…36febacked No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 65c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 130 | 62.3%81 W · 49 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b9…17bdbacked No | 77c | 19.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0633…cfdebacked No | 78c | 13.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.94 | 49 | 69.4%34 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CD Riestra vs. CA Independiente end in a draw?this page
- Will CA Independiente win on 2026-04-24?No won
- Will CD Riestra win on 2026-04-24?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.