Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Holstein Kiel vs. FC St. Pauli 1910 end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda7d0924292200e6abad1a20482e4278da7dfa683b89e21ecbc4bb6af519b788
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,020
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,885
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,020 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 13c | 7,700$1,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,698.98 | 241 | 32%77 W · 164 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbae1…d8abbacked Yes | 79c | 2,532$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 55c | 2,382$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,299.94 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe301…8654backed Yes | 79c | 1,984$1,567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.55 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9f…014abacked No | 2c | 832$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 79c | 751.55$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.03 | 283 | 45.2%128 W · 155 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Yes | 79c | 529.15$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.35 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x20c1…df04backed Yes | 27c | 370$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.1 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +4.9wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3a51…b2b6backed Yes | 28c | 360$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.2 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed No | 72c | 353.86$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed No | 53c | 306.07$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.66 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -4.6wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 72c | 152.93$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.11 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 20c | 132.18$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.05 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd966…8136backed No | 22c | 131.49$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.46 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.34 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 19c | 95.2$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.86 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x61d4…3593backed Yes | 23c | 91.44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.01 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.36per pick | 31cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 73c | 85.19$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.19 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafe3…1f2abacked Yes | 79c | 75.03$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20aa…b3dcbacked Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81a7…7042backed No | 16c | 72.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Yes | 28c | 71.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.64 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf763…a0aabacked Yes | 21c | 69.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.96 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +180.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes | 67c | 68.3$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.22 | 226 | 69%156 W · 70 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8e…944ebacked No | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 64cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 27c | 54.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.26 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 21c | 51.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 28c | 51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 114 | 47.4%54 W · 60 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 76c | 50.45$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 337 | 37.4%126 W · 211 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefbc…b344backed Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed Yes | 79c | 48$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Yes | 65c | 30.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +8.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f41…5ffcbacked No | 77c | 26.88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfb07…e2ccbacked No | 72c | 19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 75c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 79c | 17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 147 | 56.5%83 W · 64 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed Yes | 79c | 14.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.04 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 75c | 13.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 222 | 21.6%48 W · 174 L | -34.2wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Holstein Kiel vs. FC St. Pauli 1910 end in a draw?this page
- Will FC St. Pauli 1910 win on 2026-08-14?No won
- Will Holstein Kiel win on 2026-08-14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.