TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will FC St. Pauli 1910 win on 2026-08-14?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$172,239
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$164,747

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $172,239 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 145 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x122b…ac59backed No53c11,722$6,238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,484.26922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-62.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No31c10,539$3,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,219.422,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb399…9435backed No28c9,280$2,634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,645.41560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+60.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d74…a37fbacked No43c8,250$3,526 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,723.73333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-22%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3ed…9f79backed Yes38c7,792$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,000540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed No43c7,603$3,247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,356.063,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes50c5,585$2,811 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,810.6249143.2%212 W · 279 L-1.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+22.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9079…b19bbacked Yes43c5,249$2,252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,252.025653.6%30 W · 26 L-0.2wins0.00per pick54cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9212…4040backed Yes50c5,240$2,607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,606.63933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-48.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Yes73c5,084$3,704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,703.8528345.2%128 W · 155 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes55c4,548$2,497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,497.2743532.2%140 W · 295 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad31…c93abacked No50c4,019$2,014 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,004.591100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+99.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed No61c3,003$1,832 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,17169851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb42…0ad9backed No42c2,531$1,072 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,458.35366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+33.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed No62c2,172$1,357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$815.5433047.3%156 W · 174 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xafd0…ebd0backed No56c2,094$1,174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$920.171100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed No25c2,034$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,534.015345.3%24 W · 29 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6be9…5998backed No55c2,016$1,116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$900.47757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick38cpaid-5.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ec5…fd53backed Yes64c1,966$1,254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,253.911040%4 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-28.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Yes51c1,752$887 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$886.621233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.4wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-46.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x47d9…54b7backed No46c1,554$717 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$836.99425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-45.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e78…067ebacked No53c1,513$809 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$704.17425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-53.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed No40c1,438$577 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$860.881732.8%268 W · 549 L-11.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61d4…3593backed Yes2c1,350$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30666.7%4 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.36per pick31cpaid+70.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked No63c1,234$778 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$456.7142046.4%195 W · 225 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x46cd…6b95backed Yes43c1,146$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.64250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed No40c1,031$415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$615.741,01344.5%451 W · 562 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked No62c1,000$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38038646.9%181 W · 205 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked No50c1,000$496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$504.462040%8 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-28.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked No21c974.66$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$768.7112560.8%76 W · 49 L+12.0wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+13.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xac69…3c46backed No43c952.91$407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$545.91450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4502…9eedbacked No69c872.89$602 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.56728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-59.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f0f…0e48backed No50c864.04$432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432.17560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xddf1…a604backed Yes67c853.34$575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$575.32580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick60cpaid+43%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d6a…4adabacked Yes48c838.08$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.993551.4%18 W · 17 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+11.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd75a…d264backed Yes42c835$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.9320%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x976a…e8ecbacked Yes42c834.45$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.226850%34 W · 34 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x99f0…9495backed No61c760$464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.41643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick35cpaid+17.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Yes51c720.04$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.422245.9%102 W · 120 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-1.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x13e4…8b89backed Yes51c699.09$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-31.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ac3…00b2backed No60c666.66$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.661100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked No62c666.19$413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.721,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefbc…b344backed Yes52c658.48$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.83333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-34.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Yes50c633.48$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.447136.6%26 W · 45 L-7.6wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-28.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0df7…1ec1backed Yes47c579.82$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.122665.4%17 W · 9 L+2.5wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+4.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x37e6…794ebacked Yes5c499.98$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25520%1 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick8cpaid+185.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Yes54c458.35$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.5716046.9%75 W · 85 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc56…8f28backed No43c378.48$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.84650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-13.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2a0b…2500backed No37c364.06$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.54250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+36.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaae5…7974backed No35c360.64$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes46c338$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.19742.3%41 W · 56 L-5.7wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-20.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdb3a…d1ccbacked Yes63c322.46$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.130%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3654…1b78backed No48c322$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.71546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbae1…d8abbacked No63c317.46$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.46450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-28.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Yes36c304$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.441936.8%7 W · 12 L-3.1wins-0.16per pick53cpaid-36.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x50e5…e39fbacked No44c295.9$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.394650%23 W · 23 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-16.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes38c251.46$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.5511447.4%54 W · 60 L+0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid+10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed No57c250.25$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.7439857.5%229 W · 169 L+20.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid-2.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4c7a…f376backed No51c235.26$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.271100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd21c…2afcbacked Yes78c205$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x40e9…494fbacked Yes41c203.6$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.5530%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a49…d9f5backed No55c200.79$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.7340744.5%181 W · 226 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-20.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa18c…d792backed Yes37c181.46$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.14250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc785…4ef2backed Yes45c180.16$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.76560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-16.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No64c165.5$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.582871.4%20 W · 8 L+6.4wins+0.23per pick49cpaid+70.4%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xb66a…b156backed No28c159.03$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.41333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+18.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3bc…31fbbacked No64c156.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed No64c149.97$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.672860.7%17 W · 11 L+4.1wins+0.15per pick46cpaid+36.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb1ca…2c01backed No69c145$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-27.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd09…8974backed Yes56c134.31$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.7820%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1792…118abacked Yes61c132.2$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.0410865.7%71 W · 37 L+8.5wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+15.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9028…8608backed No44c130.74$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.164454.5%24 W · 20 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda6f…1e46backed No43c116.28$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+132.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d63…9075backed No47c110.99$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.354753.2%25 W · 22 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No44c108.18$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.58757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d1d…f2dfbacked No49c108$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.52366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+19.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x81a7…7042backed Yes23c105.02$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4270%0 W · 7 L-2.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd325…8c5fbacked No42c100$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick26cpaid+1.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3995…f71dbacked Yes38c100$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Yes55c100$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.791729.4%5 W · 12 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-38.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf763…a0aabacked No51c97.92$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.923100%3 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+180.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x089c…4dc4backed No39c97.57$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.516640.9%27 W · 39 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-17.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6feb…c082backed Yes36c95.67$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.44333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca75…05a6backed Yes53c95.12$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.58366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+23.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e90…4f65backed No63c95.11$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.031241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-20.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Yes36c95$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.761216.7%2 W · 10 L-3.3wins-0.27per pick44cpaid-61.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Yes32c85.67$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.412733.3%9 W · 18 L-3.0wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-30.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Yes59c82.04$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.015756.1%32 W · 25 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Yes47c81.93$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.15064%32 W · 18 L+5.0wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+5.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Yes35c81.63$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.573930.8%12 W · 27 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-37.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0e50…2609backed Yes38c77.92$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.61450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-19.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0844…f46abacked No62c75.81$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.81650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Yes57c73.9$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.912437.5%9 W · 15 L-3.7wins-0.15per pick53cpaid-20.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb0d5…573bbacked Yes49c61.22$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c0b…c814backed Yes49c61.15$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd970…bbbabacked No18c60$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.53100%3 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+206.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd2e8…c60ebacked Yes49c59.96$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8558…8615backed Yes49c59.66$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb3e…b9c5backed Yes49c59.57$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0ea…2f71backed Yes49c58.94$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.