Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Holstein Kiel win on 2026-08-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b2d6c745c88b403eeb33621876cc5539ad09454da98905212e8f735b83cbf7f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $74,818
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $82,785
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $74,818 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3ed…9f79backed No | 65c | 10,747$7,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,746.78 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb399…9435backed Yes | 30c | 5,527$1,662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,661.54 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +60.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 36c | 4,386$1,567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,567.48 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e78…067ebacked Yes | 7c | 3,163$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.31 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56f4…9ec5backed Yes | 31c | 2,735$851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$851.27 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Yes | 34c | 2,689$928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$927.5 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 76c | 1,834$1,393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.4 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 22c | 1,300$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.17 | 283 | 45.2%128 W · 155 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61d4…3593backed Yes | 2c | 1,030$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.36per pick | 31cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e39…352cbacked Yes | 37c | 999.99$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48fb…ced4backed Yes | 3c | 999.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x547f…2937backed No | 65c | 916.43$596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 37c | 896.94$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.4 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes | 35c | 872.99$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.6 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf055…02b5backed Yes | 36c | 833.33$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 3c | 752.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6155…808ebacked Yes | 43c | 700$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e6…794ebacked Yes | 5c | 600$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 8cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a51…b2b6backed Yes | 40c | 600$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.68 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 67c | 590.69$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.24 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81a9…df08backed No | 63c | 530.49$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.82 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0df7…1ec1backed No | 70c | 508.07$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.97 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked No | 74c | 450.58$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.05 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 36c | 426.11$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.92 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x590d…572dbacked Yes | 26c | 415.16$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…03b9backed Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb66a…b156backed Yes | 21c | 361.99$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed No | 70c | 359.11$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.16 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 35c | 348$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.34 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +6.4wins | +0.23per pick | 49cpaid | +70.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed No | 62c | 322.58$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x921c…05a1backed Yes | 43c | 243.09$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9df…210ebacked No | 62c | 233.55$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 35c | 230.64$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.72 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 37c | 199.19$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.46 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Yes | 37c | 180$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.7 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +4.1wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 36c | 167.25$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.38 | 114 | 47.4%54 W · 60 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3644…eb27backed Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…e57dbacked Yes | 17c | 147.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +4.9wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked No | 65c | 130.77$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.77 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 77c | 128$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.86 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 74c | 121.58$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.09 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa18c…d792backed No | 64c | 120.51$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed No | 65c | 107.47$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.61 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked No | 60c | 102.4$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.96 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +12.0wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…4eb6backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Yes | 31c | 99.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.89 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46d4…ab12backed Yes | 19c | 74.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8eb…0acbbacked No | 65c | 72.31$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.31 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7403…b24abacked Yes | 38c | 65.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.8wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Yes | 37c | 55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69df…fe16backed Yes | 39c | 53.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 62cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Yes | 35c | 51.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 330 | 47.3%156 W · 174 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc809…5f4ebacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 39c | 49.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 222 | 21.6%48 W · 174 L | -34.2wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5c46…ce9bbacked Yes | 41c | 48.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…4dc4backed Yes | 21c | 47.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Yes | 35c | 46.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed No | 64c | 45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef1…4a76backed Yes | 38c | 45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -52%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Yes | 37c | 40.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68f8…12c8backed No | 62c | 38.71$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…49c9backed No | 67c | 36.93$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.37 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e90…4f65backed Yes | 36c | 34.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79fb…56ebbacked No | 74c | 31.89$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked Yes | 36c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…99e6backed No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +8.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed No | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 175 | 47.4%83 W · 92 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09b0…a3b6backed No | 63c | 23.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x091a…8287backed No | 65c | 22.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42a1…a8e9backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85bc…1909backed No | 79c | 19.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 75c | 19.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed No | 66c | 18.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 68c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 57c | 17.95$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3123…b44dbacked No | 59c | 17.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +4.3wins | +0.31per pick | 55cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 74c | 15.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.07 | 147 | 56.5%83 W · 64 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 73c | 15.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd892…f028backed No | 79c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Holstein Kiel win on 2026-08-14?this page
- Will FC St. Pauli 1910 win on 2026-08-14?No won
- Will Holstein Kiel vs. FC St. Pauli 1910 end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.