Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on July 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda849fcc592b984a201f86a8a268978c4c655ab896d1d4c7dc77d34849105fc3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,569
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,099
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,569 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa826…f980backed No | 57c | 359.12$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.7 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 34c | 326.92$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.75 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 66c | 312.21$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.03 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f1…d28abacked Yes | 41c | 295.94$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.19 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 38c | 278.3$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.7 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed Yes | 38c | 263.45$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.75 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 30c | 260.29$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.36 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc86b…6e26backed No | 63c | 158.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 74c | 151.11$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.28 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 42c | 146.5$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.97 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 13c | 131.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 25c | 124.62$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.76 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02a3…fbdcbacked Yes | 27c | 109.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.82 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 39c | 72.83$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.43 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 73c | 70$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.1 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 38c | 66.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 38c | 62.24$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.29 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 67c | 62.23$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.93 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 60c | 57.89$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd93d…72d2backed Yes | 35c | 56.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.54 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a57…0765backed Yes | 29c | 55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.05 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 64c | 52.55$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.67 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc878…a6f3backed Yes | 32c | 51.62$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.12 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5de…07d3backed Yes | 42c | 46.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 38c | 46.16$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.56 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 29c | 45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 66c | 44.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.69 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 61c | 40.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 40c | 40.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.46 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 57c | 40.15$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.46 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 71c | 39$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.69 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 55c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 72c | 34.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 64c | 33.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 55c | 32.89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 39c | 31.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.16 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbabc…f582backed No | 76c | 30.34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…a3a5backed Yes | 36c | 28.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 75c | 28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 79c | 25.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 72c | 24.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 62c | 24.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 55c | 23.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 61c | 22.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 61c | 22.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 58c | 21.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c3e…3865backed No | 62c | 21.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 91 | 76.9%70 W · 21 L | +9.6wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 69c | 18.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad1…e9acbacked No | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 69cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 73c | 14.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 74c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on July 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on July 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.