World Politics · resolved market
Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan mayoral election by between 5% and 10%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda92e1a8d2cdc1b0a0c4e5449527b3a865ba43ac632f2da62e5dc59e8718c4c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,718
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,560
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,718 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x46ee…eb1ebacked Yes | 36c | 300$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2388…5653backed Yes | 38c | 277.14$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.31 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…0357backed No | 62c | 268.83$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.48 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 64c | 205$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.95 | 184 | 45.7%84 W · 100 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 132 | 68.9%91 W · 41 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 103 | 44.7%46 W · 57 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 26c | 49.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 53c | 47.88$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.27 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…8f36backed Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.2wins | -0.29per pick | 56cpaid | -58%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcad4…1a4cbacked No | 77c | 32.85$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x740d…2362backed No | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93f0…b231backed No | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cba…38ffbacked Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc061…a297backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x211a…6ef4backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan mayoral election by between 5% and 10%?this page
- Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan mayoral election by less than 5%?Yes won
- Will Park Heong-joon win the 2026 Busan mayoral election by less than 5%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.