NBA · resolved market
Wizards vs. Kings
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdad720cc8de4cd6126690b230566cf1d3de7041fdf8c9fa5054843a7f5cc0c56
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kingsof Wizards, Kings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $252,150
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $256,111
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $252,150 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfb9c…dfc4backed Wizards | 8c | 120,000$9,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,600 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x997b…801ebacked Wizards | 8c | 18,100$1,482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,481.99 | 461 | 31%143 W · 318 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea22…747abacked Wizards | 0c | 14,250$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 679 | 21.4%145 W · 534 L | +32.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Wizards | 8c | 5,010$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.37 | 1,782 | 28%499 W · 1,283 L | +11.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff3…7d00backed Wizards | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa273…7786backed Wizards | 7c | 4,352$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | -6.1wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Wizards | 8c | 4,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 368 | 43.8%161 W · 207 L | -17.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1f4…673abacked Wizards | 10c | 3,065$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Wizards | 1c | 3,018$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.17 | 1,035 | 1.1%11 W · 1,024 L | -24.4wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -90.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Wizards | 9c | 3,000$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.99 | 406 | 27.8%113 W · 293 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48d3…5d66backed Wizards | 4c | 2,611$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.98 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe59b…488ebacked Wizards | 8c | 2,520$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.93 | 723 | 41.2%298 W · 425 L | +23.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91b0…f0b6backed Wizards | 4c | 2,437$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.77 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71bc…28f4backed Wizards | 10c | 2,260$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.03 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -4.0wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x19b8…9c8ebacked Wizards | 9c | 2,011$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181 | 380 | 27.1%103 W · 277 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Wizards | 3c | 2,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 1,277 | 2.3%29 W · 1,248 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -84%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8682…6bccbacked Wizards | 10c | 1,962$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a0c…07cebacked Wizards | 9c | 1,731$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.82 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbed…aa02backed Wizards | 9c | 1,466$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.6 | 227 | 21.6%49 W · 178 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd692…8b9abacked Wizards | 9c | 1,014$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.72 | 262 | 35.9%94 W · 168 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Wizards | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,166 | 54.4%634 W · 532 L | +19.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc25…1f7fbacked Wizards | 8c | 999.97$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 964 | 47.8%461 W · 503 L | +35.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb916…08bfbacked Wizards | 1c | 999.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14dd…13eebacked Wizards | 5c | 750.12$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.51 | 48 | 2.1%1 W · 47 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -67%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb337…5589backed Wizards | 8c | 671.79$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.74 | 366 | 43.2%158 W · 208 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf64…7e54backed Wizards | 8c | 600$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc558…e8ccbacked Wizards | 9c | 579$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.11 | 256 | 51.6%132 W · 124 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94c1…4d52backed Wizards | 4c | 515.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +44%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74cd…2319backed Wizards | 3c | 504.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 216 | 5.6%12 W · 204 L | -12.6wins | -0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -61%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x725f…06c2backed Wizards | 10c | 500.01$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,888 | 37.3%704 W · 1,184 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked Wizards | 8c | 488.33$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.07 | 141 | 29.1%41 W · 100 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…8516backed Wizards | 9c | 452.27$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.55 | 178 | 34.8%62 W · 116 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08a8…adcebacked Wizards | 8c | 400$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 163 | 41.1%67 W · 96 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Wizards | 4c | 349.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 123 | 6.5%8 W · 115 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -89.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…7a1bbacked Wizards | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 169 | 28.4%48 W · 121 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe68a…5e25backed Wizards | 9c | 278$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 258 | 36.8%95 W · 163 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7836…6bc4backed Wizards | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x610d…188bbacked Wizards | 9c | 230$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 186 | 28%52 W · 134 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3add…11b5backed Wizards | 8c | 225.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Wizards | 9c | 200.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd64a…2fa2backed Wizards | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 156 | 40.4%63 W · 93 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85a7…10d6backed Wizards | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf9b…fe0fbacked Wizards | 8c | 199.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 136 | 11.8%16 W · 120 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec5c…ce46backed Wizards | 8c | 196.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 451 | 35%158 W · 293 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53f4…8c52backed Wizards | 9c | 170.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 105 | 40%42 W · 63 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7308…8058backed Wizards | 9c | 163.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 92 | 45.7%42 W · 50 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Wizards | 8c | 161.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +52.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Wizards | 9c | 158.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 234 | 38.9%91 W · 143 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb039…010fbacked Wizards | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +97%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c6…0bb6backed Wizards | 9c | 109.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d2a…9ee3backed Wizards | 9c | 107.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 852 | 48.9%417 W · 435 L | +26.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x851b…1b79backed Wizards | 10c | 104.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 18cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b68…795bbacked Wizards | 10c | 102.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 111 | 30.6%34 W · 77 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.