Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in February?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdadc8a0505b8a480074f7d4a807e3b10b6b00b2f04d0852f6ec48cb6be618d3f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,113
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,916
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,113 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfeb5…a393backed No | 75c | 5,277$3,971 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,306.48 | 167 | 61.7%103 W · 64 L | +19.6wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x662a…77b7backed Yes | 7c | 2,978$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc07c…577ebacked Yes | 7c | 2,782$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,053$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 475 | 4.6%22 W · 453 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +144.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 1,605$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 241 | 7.1%17 W · 224 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 1c | 1,414$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 416 | 3.1%13 W · 403 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcb…ee72backed Yes | 1c | 1,313$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 1,154$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13b6…c633backed Yes | 2c | 1,144$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 66 | 0%0 W · 66 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ff…96babacked Yes | 8c | 985.24$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.89 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Yes | 4c | 866.36$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.95 | 90 | 22.2%20 W · 70 L | +8.4wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x227c…ee3fbacked Yes | 5c | 799.94$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 8c | 753.18$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.88 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb19c…7468backed Yes | 10c | 735.22$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes | 4c | 638.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.18 | 268 | 3.4%9 W · 259 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked Yes | 7c | 601.72$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.12 | 130 | 53.8%70 W · 60 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 550.92$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.46 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa14a…df2abacked Yes | 6c | 539.97$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked Yes | 3c | 527.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4896…fe47backed Yes | 12c | 479.51$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.67 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +8.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +124.8%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 4c | 477.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 315 | 23.8%75 W · 240 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd27…b1dbbacked Yes | 5c | 453.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 137 | 5.8%8 W · 129 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…8526backed Yes | 5c | 400$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 128 | 5.5%7 W · 121 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 7c | 318.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.06 | 149 | 9.4%14 W · 135 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x328c…cbbcbacked Yes | 16c | 318.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9706…13b9backed Yes | 10c | 308.71$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a75…8f11backed Yes | 5c | 300$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5d…41b9backed Yes | 7c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 106 | 7.5%8 W · 98 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0522…02f4backed No | 80c | 199.99$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…34b4backed Yes | 8c | 193.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -38%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe33b…6de8backed Yes | 7c | 192.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…624cbacked Yes | 10c | 176.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e53…6ba9backed Yes | 15c | 165.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe727…99cfbacked Yes | 11c | 140.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd15…7cc5backed Yes | 14c | 110$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac53…2a44backed Yes | 17c | 75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf65f…a5edbacked No | 73c | 14.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in February?this page
- Will Dogecoin dip to $0.10 in February?Yes won
- Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February?No won
- Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in February?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.