CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Arcade Esports vs Mindfreak (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Oceania Cup #1 Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdae8e7f1e6c14537ac7e6d738122929af755df7d216b7b2a608236301107203b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mindfreakof Arcade Esports, Mindfreak
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,816
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,471
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,816 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2f8e…0c69backed Arcade Esports | 39c | 875.42$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.41 | 286 | 37.8%108 W · 178 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24a5…50f0backed Arcade Esports | 38c | 780.68$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.57 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked Mindfreak | 65c | 654$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.5 | 3,267 | 45.5%1,485 W · 1,782 L | -85.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Mindfreak | 68c | 172.8$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.62 | 4,754 | 43.6%2,071 W · 2,683 L | -85.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Mindfreak | 65c | 170$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.7 | 2,397 | 42.7%1,023 W · 1,374 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…ff4fbacked Mindfreak | 65c | 159.97$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.04 | 1,397 | 52.4%732 W · 665 L | +30.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Mindfreak | 63c | 120$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.7 | 2,554 | 41.3%1,054 W · 1,500 L | -116.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Mindfreak | 56c | 118.42$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.87 | 3,544 | 29.3%1,037 W · 2,507 L | -289.1wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Arcade Esports | 36c | 111.98$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.77 | 5,034 | 37.2%1,874 W · 3,160 L | -260.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6b…acabbacked Mindfreak | 47c | 107.02$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.02 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd9…8593backed Mindfreak | 61c | 100.45$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.3 | 69 | 52.2%36 W · 33 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb373…d97cbacked Mindfreak | 61c | 75$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 594 | 45.8%272 W · 322 L | -14.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Mindfreak | 55c | 73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.85 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked Arcade Esports | 45c | 73$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.85 | 5,095 | 55.1%2,805 W · 2,290 L | +119.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…88f9backed Arcade Esports | 46c | 72$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.12 | 486 | 54.5%265 W · 221 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x382c…c88bbacked Mindfreak | 68c | 70.38$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Mindfreak | 59c | 61.15$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.37 | 1,649 | 46.9%774 W · 875 L | -28.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1431…94d0backed Arcade Esports | 42c | 59.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 70 | 48.6%34 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9266…a9d3backed Mindfreak | 54c | 55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2c…787cbacked Arcade Esports | 33c | 54.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 817 | 44.7%365 W · 452 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Arcade Esports | 29c | 51.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 4,099 | 51%2,091 W · 2,008 L | +74.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb347…84b4backed Mindfreak | 56c | 49.47$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.57 | 44 | 72.7%32 W · 12 L | +5.3wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77c9…f4dabacked Mindfreak | 75c | 48$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd786…59b8backed Arcade Esports | 30c | 41.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 115 | 38.3%44 W · 71 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3211…9ee3backed Mindfreak | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 195 | 51.3%100 W · 95 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Mindfreak | 68c | 35.85$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 2,195 | 43.1%946 W · 1,249 L | -68.8wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Mindfreak | 58c | 33.02$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 726 | 45.6%331 W · 395 L | -21.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked Arcade Esports | 40c | 33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1,142 | 54.4%621 W · 521 L | -4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Mindfreak | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 1,890 | 41.9%791 W · 1,099 L | -71.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Mindfreak | 64c | 27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 5,341 | 31.3%1,674 W · 3,667 L | -390.7wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd396…442cbacked Mindfreak | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Mindfreak | 54c | 23.62$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 821 | 42.5%349 W · 472 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Mindfreak | 53c | 22.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 1,895 | 47.8%906 W · 989 L | -50.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dbc…411bbacked Mindfreak | 65c | 19.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2c…acc2backed Mindfreak | 64c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Arcade Esports vs Mindfreak (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Oceania Cup #1 Playoffsthis page
- Counter-Strike: Arcade Esports vs Mindfreak - Map 1 WinnerMindfreak won
- Counter-Strike: Arcade Esports vs Mindfreak - Map 2 WinnerArcade Esports won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.