CS2 · resolved market
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs Astralis (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdaf3f1eafc0948dd4440cb7426e3d65aa58c7aa3e571a2df457cd7d3faea0853
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Astralisof FURIA, Astralis
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $120,206
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $120,827
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $120,206 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fe1…4d7fbacked FURIA | 50c | 82,439$41,223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41,222.98 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0b…7aa5backed Astralis | 50c | 76,964$38,341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38,623.09 | 818 | 43.2%353 W · 465 L | +23.0wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ea…d96abacked Astralis | 53c | 14,352$7,607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,745.64 | 424 | 40.3%171 W · 253 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Astralis | 53c | 7,339$3,889 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,449.11 | 205 | 39.5%81 W · 124 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7645…3117backed FURIA | 47c | 7,000$3,290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,290 | 716 | 45.9%329 W · 387 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed FURIA | 50c | 5,500$2,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,750 | 194 | 55.2%107 W · 87 L | +8.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x098b…1fa5backed FURIA | 47c | 5,000$2,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,349.99 | 124 | 41.1%51 W · 73 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ec…5348backed FURIA | 46c | 4,000$1,840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,839.98 | 724 | 53.7%389 W · 335 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c1…9fe2backed Astralis | 50c | 3,700$1,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,850 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce16…d66fbacked Astralis | 54c | 2,812$1,514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,297.2 | 99 | 41.4%41 W · 58 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Astralis | 53c | 2,419$1,281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,138.04 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa558…1b44backed FURIA | 46c | 2,204$1,014 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,013.83 | 64 | 32.8%21 W · 43 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed FURIA | 47c | 2,128$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 105 | 38.1%40 W · 65 L | -8.5wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8ade…e692backed Astralis | 54c | 2,051$1,107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$943.54 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3542…c3c8backed FURIA | 45c | 1,236$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.98 | 166 | 53%88 W · 78 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbde6…e8b5backed Astralis | 50c | 1,200$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 88 | 46.6%41 W · 47 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x331a…ff18backed FURIA | 47c | 1,043$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Astralis | 52c | 1,026$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.92 | 139 | 37.4%52 W · 87 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff80…9b4dbacked FURIA | 46c | 1,019$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.52 | 325 | 52.6%171 W · 154 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf4…e3a6backed Astralis | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22ae…af00backed Astralis | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 264 | 51.5%136 W · 128 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Astralis | 55c | 800$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 104 | 42.3%44 W · 60 L | -7.8wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9b…7e7cbacked FURIA | 47c | 760$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.2 | 210 | 42.9%90 W · 120 L | -12.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ec…9c6dbacked FURIA | 49c | 609$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Astralis | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 1,144 | 49.4%565 W · 579 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa632…4c96backed Astralis | 54c | 555.56$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.56 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5f…1ae6backed FURIA | 47c | 530$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.1 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Astralis | 51c | 450$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.5 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4425…12efbacked Astralis | 53c | 427$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.69 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked Astralis | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 1,157 | 48.2%558 W · 599 L | +3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc65…19a0backed Astralis | 54c | 277.78$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.78 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…0e78backed Astralis | 54c | 255.56$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.56 | 285 | 41.1%117 W · 168 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Astralis | 54c | 243.98$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.23 | 210 | 51%107 W · 103 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffb…df76backed FURIA | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 252 | 52.8%133 W · 119 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Astralis | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 608 | 48%292 W · 316 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa097…8795backed FURIA | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 173 | 47.4%82 W · 91 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…966bbacked Astralis | 54c | 152$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.92 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04a7…164bbacked FURIA | 46c | 145$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.7 | 334 | 59%197 W · 137 L | +24.3wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7b…0cc9backed FURIA | 47c | 115.51$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.29 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff69…dbd2backed FURIA | 47c | 103.49$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.64 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.20per pick | 57cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9d…9b0ebacked FURIA | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 232 | 34.9%81 W · 151 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35ea…99bcbacked Astralis | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 136 | 57.4%78 W · 58 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54c8…0267backed Astralis | 55c | 98.09$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.14 | 113 | 42.5%48 W · 65 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9544…790dbacked Astralis | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4213…6940backed FURIA | 47c | 45.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -3.6wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b95…b23ebacked Astralis | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc706…4eeabacked Astralis | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…b0c0backed FURIA | 47c | 36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…01a4backed FURIA | 46c | 28.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 184 | 47.8%88 W · 96 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…de52backed Astralis | 53c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 55cpaid | +69.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d593backed FURIA | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa15…95e3backed Astralis | 55c | 18.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs Astralis (+1.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: Astralis vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group AFURIA won
- Counter-Strike: Astralis vs FURIA - Map 1 WinnerAstralis won
- Counter-Strike: Astralis vs FURIA - Map 2 WinnerFURIA won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.