MLB · resolved market
New York Mets vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb2782e310650678d528245fb551a5c9185cc2b5a2dd720e97bbc44302f14f9f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,601
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,608
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,601 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Over | 47c | 44,772$21,239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,532.96 | 1,414 | 49.5%700 W · 714 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 53c | 40,925$21,585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,584.73 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 48c | 3,660$1,775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,885.04 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Under | 53c | 2,697$1,429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,429.2 | 883 | 49.3%435 W · 448 L | -4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 52c | 1,585$825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$825.19 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Under | 30c | 1,125$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.34 | 108 | 49.1%53 W · 55 L | +9.7wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe95…1a93backed Under | 49c | 1,122$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.7 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 66c | 982$652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.03 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd58d…c2d6backed Under | 37c | 872.93$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.42 | 151 | 49.7%75 W · 76 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1cb…2345backed Under | 48c | 661.86$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.69 | 71 | 54.9%39 W · 32 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 48c | 515.12$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.26 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94be…e0b4backed Under | 48c | 412.5$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.2wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2728…4f96backed Over | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.36 | 534 | 48.9%261 W · 273 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 48c | 300$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba62…3e29backed Over | 52c | 288.46$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.46 | 221 | 49.3%109 W · 112 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 47c | 250$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.5 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcba…2398backed Under | 48c | 227$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.96 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 7c | 213$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d3…4b1fbacked Under | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 48c | 148$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.04 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 46c | 138.52$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.8 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 12c | 105.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Under | 44c | 102.77$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.64 | 880 | 46.4%408 W · 472 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 70c | 101.93$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.43 | 4,187 | 50.2%2,102 W · 2,085 L | +94.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25a4…69f6backed Over | 52c | 93.24$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.76 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 50c | 85$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 1,884 | 53%998 W · 886 L | +16.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Over | 49c | 54.78$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.92 | 965 | 53%511 W · 454 L | +18.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81f3…1f2abacked Under | 48c | 51.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99d4…7c0dbacked Under | 54c | 51.52$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.06 | 289 | 48.1%139 W · 150 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 49c | 49.51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2461…3eefbacked Over | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8d…7688backed Over | 47c | 42.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 241 | 49%118 W · 123 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Under | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7677…37c0backed Over | 51c | 39.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.12 | 328 | 50%164 W · 164 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa804…2a75backed Under | 48c | 37.31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 291 | 47.1%137 W · 154 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Under | 48c | 31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 895 | 48.3%432 W · 463 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 47c | 30.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0c…c0cdbacked Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 62c | 29.93$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 47c | 29.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65f0…b63fbacked Over | 69c | 28.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6f…6572backed Under | 52c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74d5…1ca9backed Over | 52c | 23.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 52c | 20.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 56c | 18.22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 2,172 | 39.9%866 W · 1,306 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Mets vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- New York Mets vs. Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers won
- New York Mets vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 10.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Milwaukee BrewersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.