TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 10?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$26,552
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$30,786

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,552 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6eda…bbc4backed No9c4,904$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$437.88616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick6cpaid+676.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe472…135bbacked No8c414.53$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.43540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick24cpaid-12.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x990e…cecfbacked Yes80c368.33$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.172568%17 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick65cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes35c302.19$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.7817,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf516…79a0backed Yes61c295.59$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.07540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes35c293.61$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.278,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No20c224.75$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.7312,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd80a…c714backed Yes37c218.28$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.11,97718.8%371 W · 1,606 L+8.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes39c212.46$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.531,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x46dc…92c3backed No9c198.87$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.02933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-48.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x67bf…c3e6backed No7c191.76$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked No16c176.56$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.4463323.9%151 W · 482 L-20.0wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-45%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x75d3…3f0ebacked No46c162.33$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.920958.4%122 W · 87 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaafc…ec67backed Yes70c145.22$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.5744757.3%256 W · 191 L+53.9wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+24%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No30c141.94$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.582,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes37c138.6$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.969,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x88e2…d474backed No12c125$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1516639.2%65 W · 101 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-31.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x74ea…b265backed Yes39c122.74$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.6621142.7%90 W · 121 L+8.9wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes65c120.34$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.9132444.4%144 W · 180 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes63c115.25$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.424,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes55c106.1$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.465,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5680…7f79backed Yes53c104.83$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.382962.1%18 W · 11 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+13.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8c67…bb39backed Yes62c103.24$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.72138.1%8 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5757…9e19backed No24c101.6$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0645162.1%280 W · 171 L+19.8wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x305d…88e2backed Yes54c99$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.545736.8%21 W · 36 L-3.6wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-22.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x40eb…ade9backed Yes79c98.99$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.349547.1%233 W · 262 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8796…e255backed No49c93.03$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.5911925.2%30 W · 89 L-14.1wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-37.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No40c90.64$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.059,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4973…5527backed Yes79c89.45$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.9830046.7%140 W · 160 L-8.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-15.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc678…e738backed Yes80c85.75$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.152259.1%13 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+13.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x747c…443bbacked Yes61c84.99$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.158643%37 W · 49 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes39c82.11$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.067,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No56c79.64$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.331,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2975…0da8backed Yes51c74.59$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.551258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x483d…65f2backed No64c74.36$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.794344.2%19 W · 24 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed No17c74.33$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.641,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No55c71.6$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.312,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a19…3c95backed Yes40c70.81$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.5342857%244 W · 184 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6bc3…222fbacked No58c68.97$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403046.7%14 W · 16 L-2.9wins-0.10per pick56cpaid-27.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaad7…cf8fbacked No62c68.93$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.7486173.2%630 W · 231 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick72cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x914b…b84abacked No64c68.44$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.87650%38 W · 38 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe1bd…b85abacked No60c67.77$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.773259.4%19 W · 13 L+3.0wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+4.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbf31…454abacked No59c66.87$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.419152.9%101 W · 90 L-7.7wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa912…297fbacked No22c63.61$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1563656.1%357 W · 279 L+1.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd04c…c640backed No57c60.66$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.2923349.8%116 W · 117 L-15.7wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-27%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7bbf…7ce5backed Yes44c60.4$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.952638.5%10 W · 16 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-13.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No29c59.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.284,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1a3…b156backed Yes50c57$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.53148.4%15 W · 16 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc323…4408backed No71c55.54$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.1733567.5%226 W · 109 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed Yes45c55.17$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.531,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes40c52.64$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.582,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No46c52.41$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.087,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xe75f…17c0backed Yes56c51.48$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.659443.6%41 W · 53 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+11.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed No36c51.06$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.291,54416.3%252 W · 1,292 L+21.9wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No27c51.06$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.931,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x013a…e374backed Yes36c50.32$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.218432.1%27 W · 57 L+3.8wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+5.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4de1…f822backed Yes63c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.7519430.4%59 W · 135 L+0.6wins0.00per pick30cpaid-12.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b82…b217backed Yes21c49.99$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.4914134.8%49 W · 92 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+14.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ccd…383bbacked No64c49.06$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.420866.8%139 W · 69 L+8.9wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x75d4…fa02backed No48c48.85$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.222846.4%13 W · 15 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-31.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes39c44.99$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.593,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9003…4c59backed Yes42c39.56$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.958531.8%27 W · 58 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c28…0d2abacked No47c38.89$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.282334.8%8 W · 15 L-3.0wins-0.13per pick48cpaid-38.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd16f…2badbacked Yes49c38.83$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.857416.2%12 W · 62 L-5.8wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-33.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5245…00c4backed Yes50c35$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.6529640.5%120 W · 176 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1d6…e027backed No60c34.58$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.68042.5%34 W · 46 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b07…e4c5backed No58c34.46$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.998748.3%42 W · 45 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-10.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc470…30d9backed Yes42c33.37$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.231464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+15.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa16a…57d5backed Yes59c32.74$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.577647.4%36 W · 40 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x66a2…0201backed No61c31.51$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.221030%3 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-54.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x446b…132abacked No47c31.5$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.923847.4%18 W · 20 L+3.8wins+0.10per pick37cpaid+21.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x39da…5318backed No49c28.82$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.246643.9%29 W · 37 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-15.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5da1…a003backed Yes53c28.3$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.317138.6%66 W · 105 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c1b…d915backed Yes44c27.02$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.1326344.9%118 W · 145 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2a99…bf87backed Yes42c25.44$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.71366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+29.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b96…5f98backed No56c25.07$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.041471.4%10 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd85…7a3dbacked No64c24.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.941,05051.2%538 W · 512 L-99.4wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-15.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xdd0d…df1ebacked Yes41c24.44$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.422433.3%8 W · 16 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes47c24.39$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.9333139.6%131 W · 200 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbfc…0be4backed No63c23.8$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.93735.1%13 W · 24 L-5.9wins-0.16per pick51cpaid-35.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xc556…9720backed Yes53c23.31$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.0525549%125 W · 130 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe57d…043abacked No62c22.89$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.198746%40 W · 47 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e9c…f3a8backed No61c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.260236.5%220 W · 382 L-2.4wins0.00per pick37cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39b7…847cbacked Yes54c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.23938.5%15 W · 24 L-6.1wins-0.16per pick54cpaid-32.2%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0x3f3e…de43backed No65c19.83$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.841127.3%3 W · 8 L-3.0wins-0.27per pick55cpaid-48.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x26c9…910bbacked Yes58c19.16$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.022075%15 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+22.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdf8e…af43backed Yes56c19.11$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.491040%4 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-26.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes59c19.04$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.781,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc495…b421backed No64c18.16$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.574953.1%26 W · 23 L-4.0wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-16.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x515c…7587backed No78c17.65$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7719648%94 W · 102 L-11.8wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-20.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No64c17.09$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.941,69960.6%1,029 W · 670 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3182…4ff7backed No61c16.91$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3214168.1%96 W · 45 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick71cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.