TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on April 10?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$15,089
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$14,925

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,089 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5f21…b376backed Yes30c425.74$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.5617,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd80a…c714backed Yes31c414.73$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.651,97718.8%371 W · 1,606 L+8.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes3c400$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106004.2%25 W · 575 L+0.4wins0.00per pick4cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No63c317.43$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.452,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No75c299.17$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.051,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes37c291.03$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.251,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x446b…132abacked Yes21c241.88$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.763847.4%18 W · 20 L+3.8wins+0.10per pick37cpaid+21.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5757…9e19backed No72c226.62$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.7845162.1%280 W · 171 L+19.8wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes23c200.71$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.418,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x51b3…16a2backed Yes32c199.23$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.123630.6%11 W · 25 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick25cpaid+18.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes35c197.21$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.221,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b20…62cbbacked No76c192.22$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.7811874.6%88 W · 30 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea6b…5ac2backed No80c184.52$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.5753437.3%199 W · 335 L-29.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-22.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed No78c181.6$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.991,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdad6…0d14backed Yes35c177.87$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.0414829.7%44 W · 104 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes10c177.47$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.387,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x6a49…54adbacked Yes25c169.61$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.672025%5 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-28.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x52f3…92d6backed Yes30c166.97$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.744314%6 W · 37 L-3.4wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-24.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes16c154.81$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.755,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No71c151.29$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.382,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes28c150.19$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.797,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x305d…88e2backed Yes26c147.4$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.755736.8%21 W · 36 L-3.6wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-22.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd36…a832backed Yes30c140.64$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.0765043.4%282 W · 368 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes21c108.72$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.991,54416.3%252 W · 1,292 L+21.9wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xea5e…a678backed Yes27c105.62$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.011,21842%512 W · 706 L+31.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc556…9720backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1025549%125 W · 130 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes20c99.66$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8612,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75d4…fa02backed Yes26c94.34$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.532846.4%13 W · 15 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-31.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbf66…0179backed Yes37c93.73$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.971729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfabc…7178backed No78c93.51$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.499176.9%70 W · 21 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick74cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x712d…1d71backed Yes23c90$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.71136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+41.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No75c89.99$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.714,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes21c88.98$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8612,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes22c87.49$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.251321.2%109 W · 404 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c7e…c08ebacked No74c84.42$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.157038.1%217 W · 353 L-40.7wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-33%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No63c78.12$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.579,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e44…eec7backed Yes23c73.86$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.153633.3%12 W · 24 L-3.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-31.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x747c…443bbacked Yes32c70$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.48643%37 W · 49 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f55…92c3backed Yes26c69.41$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.721942.1%8 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-32.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes41c65.39$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.879,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc52a…e37abacked No76c60.45$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.3318272%131 W · 51 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick73cpaid-1.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5368…2d62backed Yes19c58.72$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.41,80427.4%494 W · 1,310 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed No62c57.72$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.931,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4f6…eadabacked No74c57.39$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.8316575.8%125 W · 40 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcaaa…52e9backed Yes24c57.02$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.545438.9%21 W · 33 L-4.1wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-21.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdd0d…df1ebacked Yes24c57$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.682433.3%8 W · 16 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes41c55.47$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.742,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9770…d57dbacked No72c54.98$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.4948672%350 W · 136 L+9.4wins+0.02per pick70cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5245…00c4backed Yes34c54.67$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5429640.5%120 W · 176 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf284…c265backed Yes34c54.31$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.69137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.15per pick22cpaid-80.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes27c52.28$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3459125.9%153 W · 438 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x919d…d88cbacked Yes27c51.66$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.914544.8%65 W · 80 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No70c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.141,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae47…638dbacked No73c48.65$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.2652571.2%374 W · 151 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No74c48.3$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.3298571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked Yes25c47.42$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.042,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc52f…0981backed No72c46.91$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.0114671.2%104 W · 42 L-0.1wins0.00per pick71cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40eb…ade9backed Yes24c46.19$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9749547.1%233 W · 262 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7bbf…7ce5backed Yes29c45.52$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.162638.5%10 W · 16 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-13.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xff18…da47backed Yes28c44.59$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3926434.1%90 W · 174 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcfa2…6d7dbacked Yes26c42.58$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.07333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-27.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9003…4c59backed Yes25c41.95$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.498531.8%27 W · 58 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x61ca…a1b4backed Yes32c40.87$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0811757.3%67 W · 50 L-6.4wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-22.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes34c37.43$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.651,11563.4%707 W · 408 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbac5…c9a6backed No77c35.06$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.06633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.27per pick60cpaid-51.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xec4d…087ebacked Yes35c33.88$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.782733.3%9 W · 18 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-22.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8208…a737backed No74c32.84$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.4922675.7%171 W · 55 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick72cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x713a…258dbacked No74c32.73$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.64862.5%5 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick75cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f18…5b28backed No74c31.63$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.2526566.4%176 W · 89 L+13.0wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+6.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x74ea…b265backed Yes36c31.35$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4421142.7%90 W · 121 L+8.9wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe428…d07fbacked No80c30.7$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.2450%2 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-28.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe166…7227backed No64c30.13$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.859779.4%77 W · 20 L+8.9wins+0.09per pick70cpaid+14.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf1d6…e027backed No64c28.15$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.198042.5%34 W · 46 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa912…297fbacked No69c28.08$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.6263656.1%357 W · 279 L+1.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b05…d7a7backed No71c27.19$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.883366.7%22 W · 11 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x39fa…0b7dbacked No67c26.87$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.8740777.1%314 W · 93 L+28.1wins+0.07per pick70cpaid+9.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd04c…c640backed No75c26.52$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.6323349.8%116 W · 117 L-15.7wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-27%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x12cc…275dbacked No68c26.28$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.355463%34 W · 20 L0.0wins0.00per pick63cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x625f…5c20backed No76c25.63$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.19666.7%64 W · 32 L-5.7wins-0.06per pick73cpaid-7.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No63c25.57$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.432,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0eb…a7d8backed No77c25.38$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.845874.1%43 W · 15 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick72cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fae…94debacked No75c24.38$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.09425%1 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.43per pick68cpaid-66.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5c1b…d915backed No65c23.32$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.126344.9%118 W · 145 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xea0d…c1b6backed No73c23.03$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.2221676.4%165 W · 51 L+12.5wins+0.06per pick71cpaid+5.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2754…1668backed No71c22.99$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.671,01860.2%613 W · 405 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3271…cdecbacked No74c22.55$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.78560%3 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick75cpaid-19.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x98e9…2ea5backed No67c22.28$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.2817855.6%99 W · 79 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c04…3d8bbacked No64c22.17$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.989161.5%56 W · 35 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9da…ed70backed No59c21.54$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.8376371.4%545 W · 218 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb99…341cbacked No69c21.53$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.74966.7%6 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick74cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc9f…b4e1backed No63c21.53$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.917153.5%38 W · 33 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-19%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcbd9…ad53backed No75c21.24$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.266376.2%48 W · 15 L+6.9wins+0.11per pick65cpaid+16.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc6a9…2227backed No75c19.56$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.947173.2%52 W · 19 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick74cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a1e…9095backed No75c19.51$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.8917376.3%132 W · 41 L+11.7wins+0.07per pick70cpaid+8.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4e04…d367backed No73c19.48$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.368969.7%62 W · 27 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2097…8063backed No77c19.03$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.389668.8%66 W · 30 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6154…0404backed No76c18.86$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.513580%28 W · 7 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick74cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e84…e08dbacked No71c18.73$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.421580%12 W · 3 L+2.2wins+0.15per pick65cpaid+12.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4e9c…d0abbacked No80c18.63$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.734535.6%16 W · 29 L+4.3wins+0.09per pick26cpaid+64.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1802…9b20backed No80c18.45$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.751883.3%15 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.11per pick72cpaid+12.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.