Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb62b1e689c7a5490b95ada474d192ade8124a68041205ef4a83559ac07bc6e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,548
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,943
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,548 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 73c | 1,102$807 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.77 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 20c | 398.73$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.18 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 19c | 391.72$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.12 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 78c | 347.08$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.28 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf9…1ffabacked Yes | 34c | 181.25$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.26 | 101 | 21.8%22 W · 79 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 7c | 167.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 65c | 150$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 136.88$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.02 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 33c | 126.16$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.91 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 13c | 124$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 79c | 110.88$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.72 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 29c | 108.88$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.05 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 51c | 82.47$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.23 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 36c | 81.68$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 44c | 81.51$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.43 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 13c | 80.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 64c | 75$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 42c | 73.66$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.89 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed No | 55c | 67.41$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.87 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3b…3a20backed Yes | 31c | 65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.75 | 169 | 37.3%63 W · 106 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 78c | 64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 62c | 58.92$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.31 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 61c | 58.88$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 70c | 54$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 33c | 53.55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.14 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 35c | 51.24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50c8…f649backed No | 67c | 48.03$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.19 | 199 | 47.7%95 W · 104 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 78c | 46.96$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.71 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 66c | 39.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.38 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 32c | 33.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 56c | 32.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81a6…070fbacked Yes | 48c | 31.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +6.7wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c2…f88bbacked Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 67c | 26.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed No | 70c | 24.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 57c | 24.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 59c | 22.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 59c | 22.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 79c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 50c | 21.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf178…7535backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c18…926abacked No | 54c | 18.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 76c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde64…a821backed No | 70c | 17.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 59c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.