NFL · resolved market
Ravens vs. Commanders
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb656008d194d935c712114dbb2f4b9495c4f79cae6abd8cbf2fadf13cd8e32d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ravens of Ravens , Commanders
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $74,260
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $79,122
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $74,260 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed Ravens | 62c | 25,178$15,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,618.59 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba6…0f07backed Ravens | 61c | 21,272$12,976 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,296.05 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Commanders | 39c | 19,999$7,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,799.61 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Commanders | 38c | 19,915$7,533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,532.55 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f8…56b6backed Commanders | 39c | 7,431$2,874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,874.48 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Commanders | 0c | 4,389$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 567 | 9.9%56 W · 511 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…a990backed Commanders | 39c | 1,262$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.1 | 76 | 27.6%21 W · 55 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Commanders | 38c | 1,259$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.96 | 320 | 50.9%163 W · 157 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11c1…7fe5backed Ravens | 62c | 1,028$637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.58 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61bf…647ebacked Ravens | 63c | 1,000$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x898b…8d76backed Ravens | 61c | 981.85$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.85 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +5.4wins | +0.21per pick | 48cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Ravens | 63c | 796.32$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.32 | 200 | 39.5%79 W · 121 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe81…5fe9backed Ravens | 66c | 615.19$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.51 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Commanders | 40c | 599.66$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.87 | 284 | 36.3%103 W · 181 L | +14.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Commanders | 37c | 575.22$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.3 | 397 | 54.4%216 W · 181 L | +26.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa75c…895ebacked Commanders | 38c | 455.39$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.05 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b4a…4e2dbacked Commanders | 20c | 437.85$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.57 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Commanders | 39c | 400$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -4.2wins | -0.28per pick | 42cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb3…4976backed Commanders | 8c | 357.14$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Commanders | 17c | 336.85$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.52 | 310 | 56.8%176 W · 134 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd269…8055backed Commanders | 43c | 332.41$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.23 | 133 | 35.3%47 W · 86 L | -9.1wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef3c…f731backed Ravens | 62c | 322.58$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.58 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -6.1wins | -0.23per pick | 66cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…8919backed Ravens | 62c | 264$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.32 | 110 | 47.3%52 W · 58 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb683…61b1backed Ravens | 60c | 251.44$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.44 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf950…81d1backed Commanders | 5c | 246.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 5cpaid | +860.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Commanders | 41c | 246.28$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 384 | 59.9%230 W · 154 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc87…dd68backed Commanders | 39c | 245.13$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.25 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Commanders | 42c | 240.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 175 | 58.9%103 W · 72 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Commanders | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 96 | 33.3%32 W · 64 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a34…56cfbacked Ravens | 58c | 172.18$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.18 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccf…2fedbacked Ravens | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 107 | 63.6%68 W · 39 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac29…fa88backed Ravens | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 286 | 59.4%170 W · 116 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06b2…9f35backed Ravens | 61c | 139.98$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.84 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Ravens | 61c | 137.18$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.5 | 343 | 49.3%169 W · 174 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b51…e165backed Commanders | 40c | 106.94$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.24 | 304 | 46.7%142 W · 162 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcacb…a28fbacked Ravens | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf8…a406backed Commanders | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Commanders | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 230 | 24.3%56 W · 174 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Commanders | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 263 | 31.6%83 W · 180 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b35…d789backed Ravens | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3095…8e0ebacked Commanders | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.03 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9c8…5e0dbacked Commanders | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Ravens | 60c | 85.06$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.27 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Ravens | 61c | 80$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b3f…4ceabacked Ravens | 62c | 71.89$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.39 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…1e88backed Ravens | 61c | 57.38$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.38 | 145 | 37.2%54 W · 91 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee4…b575backed Commanders | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…e0e1backed Ravens | 61c | 45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.43 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…7b6ebacked Commanders | 43c | 39.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 170 | 60.6%103 W · 67 L | +12.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4664…21b1backed Ravens | 78c | 37.22$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39b6…e6e7backed Ravens | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85ab…8b3cbacked Ravens | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Ravens | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 159 | 44%70 W · 89 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2272…2e9cbacked Commanders | 39c | 31.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11a7…6744backed Ravens | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49f4…a73bbacked Ravens | 61c | 29.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42a2…9bbabacked Commanders | 38c | 27.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -3.9wins | -0.21per pick | 42cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x282f…ac8dbacked Commanders | 42c | 26.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +23%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed Ravens | 60c | 25.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c76…c033backed Ravens | 58c | 24.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Ravens | 58c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 207 | 60.9%126 W · 81 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.