Australian A League · resolved market
Will Adelaide United FC win on 2026-01-10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb84ff45c58d4d2036c665d5cda58cd29987e596bcdb9ef70cfc6fa3785cb737
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,896
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,752
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,896 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 38c | 7,704$2,957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,957.06 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc49f…9e05backed No | 63c | 5,930$3,736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,194.1 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.33per pick | 53cpaid | +69.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked No | 63c | 5,000$3,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,849.95 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +12.6wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 37c | 1,870$692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$691.74 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Yes | 37c | 1,500$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…585abacked No | 63c | 889.48$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked No | 42c | 714.29$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.29 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 20c | 636.75$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.84 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 37c | 411$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.07 | 228 | 52.2%119 W · 109 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 37c | 372.78$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.68 | 300 | 55.3%166 W · 134 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 37c | 303.52$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.3 | 168 | 58.3%98 W · 70 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 62c | 161.45$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -6.2wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9058…a2c2backed No | 36c | 156$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.84 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Yes | 64c | 155.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 95 | 50.5%48 W · 47 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12b9…3ec2backed Yes | 37c | 150.03$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.51 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed No | 36c | 143.96$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.13 | 117 | 50.4%59 W · 58 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa024…4929backed No | 65c | 143$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.05 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50fc…ba9abacked No | 61c | 142$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.38 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 42c | 116.85$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.55 | 305 | 36.1%110 W · 195 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Yes | 37c | 116.46$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.28 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +4.5wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +40%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb81d…c6c0backed No | 65c | 112$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…07d8backed No | 62c | 106$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.28 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…6563backed No | 61c | 102$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.78 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 59c | 100.43$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.52 | 69 | 69.6%48 W · 21 L | +7.3wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x37bb…c71fbacked No | 65c | 88$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.34per pick | 51cpaid | +83.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1670…2277backed Yes | 35c | 85.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…dd64backed Yes | 63c | 79.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.6wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -38%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x04a1…6b2dbacked Yes | 36c | 79$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f91…20ccbacked No | 62c | 70$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc938…af43backed No | 65c | 65$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.37per pick | 49cpaid | +89.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcb87…88d1backed No | 62c | 62$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.56 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa49…949ebacked No | 62c | 61$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.18 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -40%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf43d…1e75backed Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +174%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…23c7backed Yes | 32c | 51.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Yes | 37c | 48.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 70 | 48.6%34 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee35…11ecbacked No | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3759…6b3bbacked Yes | 38c | 41.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 61c | 41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 121 | 56.2%68 W · 53 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd84f…0475backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd512…91eebacked Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c1…090dbacked Yes | 39c | 39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9431…6270backed Yes | 38c | 37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…67b1backed Yes | 38c | 37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 62cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…7d27backed Yes | 39c | 36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50be…bcb1backed Yes | 37c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f33…8f17backed Yes | 35c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Yes | 37c | 34.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f8…667fbacked Yes | 35c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x66f7…2894backed Yes | 35c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.9wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x90e4…e026backed No | 42c | 31.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.13 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 65c | 31.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 437 | 48.3%211 W · 226 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7c…1214backed Yes | 39c | 31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fef…a3d3backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7219…fcf7backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc7…55f6backed Yes | 49c | 29.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed No | 63c | 29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed No | 42c | 26.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 66c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bea…6ce6backed No | 62c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +58%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa188…3fccbacked Yes | 67c | 19.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e14…2266backed Yes | 70c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Adelaide United FC win on 2026-01-10?this page
- Will Wellington Phoenix FC vs. Adelaide United FC end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Wellington Phoenix FC win on 2026-01-10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.