Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on July 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb91aedccdb46504d57d4395a5e7ca9d2ff04445bc61355eb36d6bcba0bf0adf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,806
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,363
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,806 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x26cb…a394backed No | 51c | 406.43$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.84 | 124 | 37.1%46 W · 78 L | -17.5wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 53c | 306.99$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 40c | 300$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.1 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 51c | 280.43$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.02 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 11c | 264.88$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.31 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 48c | 208.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.44 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 46c | 198.59$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.78 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed No | 52c | 186.87$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.87 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 40c | 180.91$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.78 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x775c…28a9backed No | 38c | 178.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.02 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 50c | 175.43$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.72 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 59c | 169.26$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.26 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 71c | 155.79$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.94 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 35c | 138.52$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.2 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x515f…a606backed No | 41c | 118.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.79 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 42c | 109.22$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.58 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 35c | 103.03$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.38 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 53c | 102$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.55 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked Yes | 46c | 97.79$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7477backed No | 50c | 95.56$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.78 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -34.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 66c | 80$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 65c | 75$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd79…989ebacked No | 50c | 71.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 45c | 67.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.43 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2350…a351backed Yes | 61c | 62.73$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.73 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 47c | 56.26$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.56 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45f3…216cbacked Yes | 59c | 50.84$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.84 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 192 | 59.4%114 W · 78 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c9b6backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 91 | 58.2%53 W · 38 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd93e…7434backed No | 25c | 46.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc7…147ebacked Yes | 63c | 39.81$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.81 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b43…951fbacked No | 41c | 29.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf183…83ccbacked No | 41c | 27.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc1…90cfbacked Yes | 58c | 25.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -5.0wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -22%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 61c | 24.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 50c | 23.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…0ad4backed Yes | 60c | 23.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 54c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 60c | 21.78$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 49c | 20.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1442…c64fbacked Yes | 77c | 12.95$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.95 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on July 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on July 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.