Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb99f2987c563a7f97dfb6e77a4a07534190a571a7cd5d22b4b65aae0608d1c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,042
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,403
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,042 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 10c | 525$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.98 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 33c | 497$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.33 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa895…faacbacked Yes | 8c | 312.12$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 203 | 38.4%78 W · 125 L | +30.4wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +177%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 70c | 223.72$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.47 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 12c | 194.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 10c | 191.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed Yes | 36c | 168.21$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.5 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 20c | 163$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.47 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7180…1cefbacked Yes | 20c | 159.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.62 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 65c | 149.91$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.39 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 10c | 114.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14b9…6969backed Yes | 10c | 105$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 28c | 102.32$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae4c…d114backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 16c | 99.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 22c | 99.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 23c | 77.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 67c | 76.58$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.27 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 74c | 70$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18dc…5e90backed Yes | 50c | 64.46$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.39 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…5b4bbacked No | 58c | 57.62$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…74f9backed Yes | 34c | 48.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 67c | 43.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ba…b46dbacked Yes | 39c | 43.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 29c | 42.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 29c | 40.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x558e…ec99backed No | 64c | 40.17$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.46 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea4…90edbacked Yes | 37c | 30.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +7.7wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8a…74b1backed No | 66c | 30.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 80c | 29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 64c | 24.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95fa…bf35backed No | 65c | 23.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 64c | 20.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe02d…bcffbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafa6…a78bbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.69 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 20?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 20?Yes won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.